A dithering Obama emboldened China

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Sertorio
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Re: A dithering Obama emboldened China

Post by Sertorio » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:52 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:31 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:26 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:12 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:04 am
Being Chinese yourself, you must know that the Chinese tend to be pretty rational people, having had 5,000 years to learn how to deal with other peoples...
There are zero people, Chinese or otherwise, who are 5,000 years old, and you are oversimplifying and overestimating the positive impact of culture on living people's present decision making.

For example, perhaps the most important policy goal of the PRC is to reabsorb Taiwan. If they were so patient and wise, why didn't they use the return of Hong Kong and Macau as a means to reach that goal, by assiduously respecting their autonomy as a means of reassuring the Taiwanese that being a SAR would be safe?
Maybe because with Taiwan the US is always interfering and enabling the Taiwanese to refuse China's approaches...
If by that you mean protect themselves from being invaded by China, then yes, sales of military hardware have helped in that regard.

Also, you completely ignored my point.
Why would China invade Taiwan? China did not need to invade Hong Kong or Macao in order to make them autonomous regions of China. Taiwan could have made a similar deal with China, which would guarantee Taiwan's autonomy. But the expectation that the US would stand by them encouraged Taiwan to refuse any negotiation with China. And the funny thing is that the US recognizes that Taiwan is a part of China. But makes sure that in practice it isn't. Maybe China should start assisting the people in Hawaii and in Alaska who want to secede from the US...

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SteveFoerster
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Re: A dithering Obama emboldened China

Post by SteveFoerster » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:31 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:52 am
Why would China invade Taiwan? China did not need to invade Hong Kong or Macao in order to make them autonomous regions of China.
No, because the UK and Portugal were willing to leave, and no one gave the people who actually live in those places a say.
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:52 am
Taiwan could have made a similar deal with China, which would guarantee Taiwan's autonomy.
Did you really miss my point or are you just being stubborn?

Yes, Taiwan could have made a similar deal with China, and ultimately might have done exactly that, except that they looked across the strait and saw China break its promises of autonomy to Hong Kong and Macau... which is exactly why the point I made in the first place was that the Chinese were foolish to do so.

Not everything is about the U.S., Sertorio!
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

neverfail
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Re: A dithering Obama emboldened China

Post by neverfail » Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:39 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:31 pm


Yes, Taiwan could have made a similar deal with China, and ultimately might have done exactly that, except that they looked across the strait and saw China break its promises of autonomy to Hong Kong and Macau... which is exactly why the point I made in the first place was that the Chinese were foolish to do so.

Not everything is about the U.S., Sertorio!
Exactly!

With the PRC agreements are honoured but only until they have outlived their usefulness. Considering the price you pay for incorporation into the PRC police state (e.g. Tibet, Xinjiang) were I Taiwanese myself I would want my country to cling on to its independence regardless of cost. If that means having the US as protector then so be it.

In wanting to extinguish Taiwan's independence I believe that the PRC policy makers are drawing lessons from China's own long history. Whenever China in the past has been divided it has suffered woe.

Indeed, I do not believe that the knee jerk American Commie bashers realise just how much the PRC is guided by Chinese history and tradition (which runs deep) and how little Marx counts for anything over there.

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Sertorio
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Re: A dithering Obama emboldened China

Post by Sertorio » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:04 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:31 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:52 am
Why would China invade Taiwan? China did not need to invade Hong Kong or Macao in order to make them autonomous regions of China.
No, because the UK and Portugal were willing to leave, and no one gave the people who actually live in those places a say.
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:52 am
Taiwan could have made a similar deal with China, which would guarantee Taiwan's autonomy.
Did you really miss my point or are you just being stubborn?

Yes, Taiwan could have made a similar deal with China, and ultimately might have done exactly that, except that they looked across the strait and saw China break its promises of autonomy to Hong Kong and Macau... which is exactly why the point I made in the first place was that the Chinese were foolish to do so.

Not everything is about the U.S., Sertorio!
Macao and Hong Kong are cities, without much of what is necessary to become independent. Both were not democracies before joining China, and both are now much better off then they were under Portuguese and British rule. What are they complaining about? Taiwan is much bigger and diversified than either Macao or Hong Kong, and their autonomy within China would be a lot easier to preserve. Even within China, Taiwan could be a true democracy, so what do they fear? And China couldn't care less about the political system in Taiwan, as long as Chinese sovereignty was guaranteed. By interfering, the US has created instability, and may force China to take over Taiwan by military force. Which would be the worst possible alternative, also for the US. Unfortunately the US almost never knows when to back off.

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SteveFoerster
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Re: A dithering Obama emboldened China

Post by SteveFoerster » Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:21 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:04 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:31 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:52 am
Why would China invade Taiwan? China did not need to invade Hong Kong or Macao in order to make them autonomous regions of China.
No, because the UK and Portugal were willing to leave, and no one gave the people who actually live in those places a say.
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:52 am
Taiwan could have made a similar deal with China, which would guarantee Taiwan's autonomy.
Did you really miss my point or are you just being stubborn?

Yes, Taiwan could have made a similar deal with China, and ultimately might have done exactly that, except that they looked across the strait and saw China break its promises of autonomy to Hong Kong and Macau... which is exactly why the point I made in the first place was that the Chinese were foolish to do so.

Not everything is about the U.S., Sertorio!
Macao and Hong Kong are cities, without much of what is necessary to become independent. Both were not democracies before joining China, and both are now much better off then they were under Portuguese and British rule. What are they complaining about? Taiwan is much bigger and diversified than either Macao or Hong Kong, and their autonomy within China would be a lot easier to preserve. Even within China, Taiwan could be a true democracy, so what do they fear? And China couldn't care less about the political system in Taiwan, as long as Chinese sovereignty was guaranteed. By interfering, the US has created instability, and may force China to take over Taiwan by military force. Which would be the worst possible alternative, also for the US. Unfortunately the US almost never knows when to back off.
The only part of that that wasn't flat wrong was that Macau and Hong Kong are cities.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

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cassowary
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Re: A dithering Obama emboldened China

Post by cassowary » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:19 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:31 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:26 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:12 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:04 am
Being Chinese yourself, you must know that the Chinese tend to be pretty rational people, having had 5,000 years to learn how to deal with other peoples...
There are zero people, Chinese or otherwise, who are 5,000 years old, and you are oversimplifying and overestimating the positive impact of culture on living people's present decision making.

For example, perhaps the most important policy goal of the PRC is to reabsorb Taiwan. If they were so patient and wise, why didn't they use the return of Hong Kong and Macau as a means to reach that goal, by assiduously respecting their autonomy as a means of reassuring the Taiwanese that being a SAR would be safe?
Maybe because with Taiwan the US is always interfering and enabling the Taiwanese to refuse China's approaches...
If by that you mean protect themselves from being invaded by China, then yes, sales of military hardware have helped in that regard.

Also, you completely ignored my point.
Steve,

Sertorio is always missing points he does not want to acknowledge.

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cassowary
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Re: A dithering Obama emboldened China

Post by cassowary » Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:23 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:52 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:31 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:26 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:12 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:04 am
Being Chinese yourself, you must know that the Chinese tend to be pretty rational people, having had 5,000 years to learn how to deal with other peoples...
There are zero people, Chinese or otherwise, who are 5,000 years old, and you are oversimplifying and overestimating the positive impact of culture on living people's present decision making.

For example, perhaps the most important policy goal of the PRC is to reabsorb Taiwan. If they were so patient and wise, why didn't they use the return of Hong Kong and Macau as a means to reach that goal, by assiduously respecting their autonomy as a means of reassuring the Taiwanese that being a SAR would be safe?
Maybe because with Taiwan the US is always interfering and enabling the Taiwanese to refuse China's approaches...
If by that you mean protect themselves from being invaded by China, then yes, sales of military hardware have helped in that regard.

Also, you completely ignored my point.
Why would China invade Taiwan? China did not need to invade Hong Kong or Macao in order to make them autonomous regions of China. Taiwan could have made a similar deal with China, which would guarantee Taiwan's autonomy. But the expectation that the US would stand by them encouraged Taiwan to refuse any negotiation with China. And the funny thing is that the US recognizes that Taiwan is a part of China. But makes sure that in practice it isn't. Maybe China should start assisting the people in Hawaii and in Alaska who want to secede from the US...
Sertorio,

The Chinese regime in China cannot be trusted. That's the reason why Taiwan clings to its indepenence. Taiwan trusts the US more than its fellow Chinese across the Straits. They understand them perfectly. And so do I.

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Sertorio
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Re: A dithering Obama emboldened China

Post by Sertorio » Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:39 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:21 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:04 pm

Macao and Hong Kong are cities, without much of what is necessary to become independent. Both were not democracies before joining China, and both are now much better off then they were under Portuguese and British rule. What are they complaining about? Taiwan is much bigger and diversified than either Macao or Hong Kong, and their autonomy within China would be a lot easier to preserve. Even within China, Taiwan could be a true democracy, so what do they fear? And China couldn't care less about the political system in Taiwan, as long as Chinese sovereignty was guaranteed. By interfering, the US has created instability, and may force China to take over Taiwan by military force. Which would be the worst possible alternative, also for the US. Unfortunately the US almost never knows when to back off.
The only part of that that wasn't flat wrong was that Macau and Hong Kong are cities.
You are of course entitled to your opinion, but we need more than your opinion to be convinced of what you say. Maybe you will want to try again...

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Sertorio
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Re: A dithering Obama emboldened China

Post by Sertorio » Fri Oct 12, 2018 1:43 am

cassowary wrote:
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:23 pm

The Chinese regime in China cannot be trusted. That's the reason why Taiwan clings to its indepenence. Taiwan trusts the US more than its fellow Chinese across the Straits. They understand them perfectly. And so do I.
I wonder whether a Chinese who became a Christian may not have lost the ability to understand China and the Chinese...

Jim the Moron
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Re: A dithering Obama emboldened China

Post by Jim the Moron » Fri Oct 12, 2018 6:00 am

And I, in turn, wonder whether a Portuguese who became an atheist may not have lost the ability to understand Portugal and the Portuguese ...

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