Israel

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Sertorio
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Re: Israel

Post by Sertorio » Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:04 am

neverfail wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:39 pm
cassowary wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:15 pm

This time around the Sunni Arabs are afraid of Iran. So it is in their interests for the Palestinians to bury the hatchet. They should reduce their aid to the Palestinians.
Oh, what a golden opportunity for Iran to move in with increased aid of its own to buy the allegiance of the palestinians.
Very likely cassowary you will find that the Saudis do not provide that aid out of any fancy sense of Arab solidarity but because they know that if they did not give their Shia enemies would move in and fill the vacuum at cost to them.

If President darn old Trump were not such a dumb arse fool in matters of foreign policy he would have realised that past administrations also provided US aid to the Palestinians (despite their verbal "lack of respect") for that very reason. His precipitous decision to terminate that aid (under the influence of his Jewish son-in-law no doubt?) must have made the temptation for the Palestinians to take their business elsewhere more appealing.
cassowary wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:15 pm
If the Palestinians accept a peace deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni powers can more openly ally themselves with Israel against Iran.
Agreed - but what sort of peace deal? Peace treaties are not of one standard make and model - each has to be individually hand crafted. The devil in any peace deal lies in the terms and conditions. Were the Palestinians to agree to one under duress I am sure the Israeli negotiators would not hesitate to screw them over right royally.
Israel and the US ultimately will not accept anything short of the Palestinians leaving the West Bank and going to live elsewhere. Cruel, but no more cruel than forcing millions of Germans leaving their ancestral eastern provinces to make room for Poles, after 1945. Were the Germans defeated in a war of their own making? So were the Arabs when they decided to refuse the foundation of Israel by the UN, and tried to expel the Jews by force... No treaty will ever impose on Palestinians their leaving Palestine? No need for that. Israeli settlements will take care of the problem, even if it takes another 50 years... It would be better for everyone to accept this reality, but countries and their peoples love to live in a fantasy world...

Jim the Moron
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Re: Israel

Post by Jim the Moron » Sat Jun 23, 2018 4:37 am

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:04 am
neverfail wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:39 pm
cassowary wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:15 pm

This time around the Sunni Arabs are afraid of Iran. So it is in their interests for the Palestinians to bury the hatchet. They should reduce their aid to the Palestinians.
Oh, what a golden opportunity for Iran to move in with increased aid of its own to buy the allegiance of the palestinians.
Very likely cassowary you will find that the Saudis do not provide that aid out of any fancy sense of Arab solidarity but because they know that if they did not give their Shia enemies would move in and fill the vacuum at cost to them.

If President darn old Trump were not such a dumb arse fool in matters of foreign policy he would have realised that past administrations also provided US aid to the Palestinians (despite their verbal "lack of respect") for that very reason. His precipitous decision to terminate that aid (under the influence of his Jewish son-in-law no doubt?) must have made the temptation for the Palestinians to take their business elsewhere more appealing.
cassowary wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:15 pm
If the Palestinians accept a peace deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni powers can more openly ally themselves with Israel against Iran.
Agreed - but what sort of peace deal? Peace treaties are not of one standard make and model - each has to be individually hand crafted. The devil in any peace deal lies in the terms and conditions. Were the Palestinians to agree to one under duress I am sure the Israeli negotiators would not hesitate to screw them over right royally.
Israel and the US ultimately will not accept anything short of the Palestinians leaving the West Bank and going to live elsewhere. Cruel, but no more cruel than forcing millions of Germans leaving their ancestral eastern provinces to make room for Poles, after 1945. Were the Germans defeated in a war of their own making? So were the Arabs when they decided to refuse the foundation of Israel by the UN, and tried to expel the Jews by force... No treaty will ever impose on Palestinians their leaving Palestine? No need for that. Israeli settlements will take care of the problem, even if it takes another 50 years... It would be better for everyone to accept this reality, but countries and their peoples love to live in a fantasy world...

Jim the Moron
Posts: 1591
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:51 pm

Re: Israel

Post by Jim the Moron » Sat Jun 23, 2018 4:42 am

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:04 am
neverfail wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:39 pm
cassowary wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:15 pm

This time around the Sunni Arabs are afraid of Iran. So it is in their interests for the Palestinians to bury the hatchet. They should reduce their aid to the Palestinians.
Oh, what a golden opportunity for Iran to move in with increased aid of its own to buy the allegiance of the palestinians.
Very likely cassowary you will find that the Saudis do not provide that aid out of any fancy sense of Arab solidarity but because they know that if they did not give their Shia enemies would move in and fill the vacuum at cost to them.

If President darn old Trump were not such a dumb arse fool in matters of foreign policy he would have realised that past administrations also provided US aid to the Palestinians (despite their verbal "lack of respect") for that very reason. His precipitous decision to terminate that aid (under the influence of his Jewish son-in-law no doubt?) must have made the temptation for the Palestinians to take their business elsewhere more appealing.
cassowary wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:15 pm
If the Palestinians accept a peace deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni powers can more openly ally themselves with Israel against Iran.
Agreed - but what sort of peace deal? Peace treaties are not of one standard make and model - each has to be individually hand crafted. The devil in any peace deal lies in the terms and conditions. Were the Palestinians to agree to one under duress I am sure the Israeli negotiators would not hesitate to screw them over right royally.
Israel and the US ultimately will not accept anything short of the Palestinians leaving the West Bank and going to live elsewhere. Cruel, but no more cruel than forcing millions of Germans leaving their ancestral eastern provinces to make room for Poles, after 1945. Were the Germans defeated in a war of their own making? So were the Arabs when they decided to refuse the foundation of Israel by the UN, and tried to expel the Jews by force... No treaty will ever impose on Palestinians their leaving Palestine? No need for that. Israeli settlements will take care of the problem, even if it takes another 50 years... It would be better for everyone to accept this reality, but countries and their peoples love to live in a fantasy world...
Sertorio speaks the truth, in every detail.

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cassowary
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Re: Israel

Post by cassowary » Sat Jun 23, 2018 6:39 am

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:04 am
neverfail wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:39 pm
cassowary wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:15 pm

This time around the Sunni Arabs are afraid of Iran. So it is in their interests for the Palestinians to bury the hatchet. They should reduce their aid to the Palestinians.
Oh, what a golden opportunity for Iran to move in with increased aid of its own to buy the allegiance of the palestinians.
Very likely cassowary you will find that the Saudis do not provide that aid out of any fancy sense of Arab solidarity but because they know that if they did not give their Shia enemies would move in and fill the vacuum at cost to them.

If President darn old Trump were not such a dumb arse fool in matters of foreign policy he would have realised that past administrations also provided US aid to the Palestinians (despite their verbal "lack of respect") for that very reason. His precipitous decision to terminate that aid (under the influence of his Jewish son-in-law no doubt?) must have made the temptation for the Palestinians to take their business elsewhere more appealing.
cassowary wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:15 pm
If the Palestinians accept a peace deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni powers can more openly ally themselves with Israel against Iran.
Agreed - but what sort of peace deal? Peace treaties are not of one standard make and model - each has to be individually hand crafted. The devil in any peace deal lies in the terms and conditions. Were the Palestinians to agree to one under duress I am sure the Israeli negotiators would not hesitate to screw them over right royally.
Israel and the US ultimately will not accept anything short of the Palestinians leaving the West Bank and going to live elsewhere. Cruel, but no more cruel than forcing millions of Germans leaving their ancestral eastern provinces to make room for Poles, after 1945. Were the Germans defeated in a war of their own making? So were the Arabs when they decided to refuse the foundation of Israel by the UN, and tried to expel the Jews by force... No treaty will ever impose on Palestinians their leaving Palestine? No need for that. Israeli settlements will take care of the problem, even if it takes another 50 years... It would be better for everyone to accept this reality, but countries and their peoples love to live in a fantasy world...
I think Trump will use a carrot and stick approach. Make it clear to the Palestinians that they get a smaller Palestine the longer they refuse to make peace. So this means letting Israel build more settlements and remind them of the generous offer made by Ehud Barak, now off the table.
The Imp :D

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dagbay
Posts: 304
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Re: Israel

Post by dagbay » Sat Jun 23, 2018 2:15 pm

Jim the Moron wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 4:42 am
Sertorio wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:04 am
neverfail wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:39 pm
cassowary wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:15 pm

This time around the Sunni Arabs are afraid of Iran. So it is in their interests for the Palestinians to bury the hatchet. They should reduce their aid to the Palestinians.
Oh, what a golden opportunity for Iran to move in with increased aid of its own to buy the allegiance of the palestinians.
Very likely cassowary you will find that the Saudis do not provide that aid out of any fancy sense of Arab solidarity but because they know that if they did not give their Shia enemies would move in and fill the vacuum at cost to them.

If President darn old Trump were not such a dumb arse fool in matters of foreign policy he would have realised that past administrations also provided US aid to the Palestinians (despite their verbal "lack of respect") for that very reason. His precipitous decision to terminate that aid (under the influence of his Jewish son-in-law no doubt?) must have made the temptation for the Palestinians to take their business elsewhere more appealing.
cassowary wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 3:15 pm
If the Palestinians accept a peace deal with Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni powers can more openly ally themselves with Israel against Iran.
Agreed - but what sort of peace deal? Peace treaties are not of one standard make and model - each has to be individually hand crafted. The devil in any peace deal lies in the terms and conditions. Were the Palestinians to agree to one under duress I am sure the Israeli negotiators would not hesitate to screw them over right royally.
Israel and the US ultimately will not accept anything short of the Palestinians leaving the West Bank and going to live elsewhere. Cruel, but no more cruel than forcing millions of Germans leaving their ancestral eastern provinces to make room for Poles, after 1945. Were the Germans defeated in a war of their own making? So were the Arabs when they decided to refuse the foundation of Israel by the UN, and tried to expel the Jews by force... No treaty will ever impose on Palestinians their leaving Palestine? No need for that. Israeli settlements will take care of the problem, even if it takes another 50 years... It would be better for everyone to accept this reality, but countries and their peoples love to live in a fantasy world...
Sertorio speaks the truth, in every detail.
And I agree to that as well except that the Palies and the World in my view are not ready for that type of resolution. Some major shift in the ME is needed to bring people to accept such a resolution. One such event could be a Palestinian revolt in Jordan which has a large Palestinian population.

On another point - As much as the pragmatic Sunni - Israel truce due to the Iranian threat looks attractive, I am not sure this being the sole reason for cooperation is in the best interests of Israel. Israel will do best not to take sides between Sunni and Shia Muslims. Those will war among themselves for another thousand years. Israel is neither Shia or Sunni and taking sides in this clash under the purported truce will not be viewed independent of the internal sectarian war.
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

neverfail
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Location: Singapore

Re: Israel

Post by neverfail » Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:57 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 3:04 am

Israel and the US ultimately will not accept anything short of the Palestinians leaving the West Bank and going to live elsewhere. Cruel, but no more cruel than forcing millions of Germans leaving their ancestral eastern provinces to make room for Poles, after 1945. Were the Germans defeated in a war of their own making? So were the Arabs when they decided to refuse the foundation of Israel by the UN, and tried to expel the Jews by force... No treaty will ever impose on Palestinians their leaving Palestine? No need for that. Israeli settlements will take care of the problem, even if it takes another 50 years... It would be better for everyone to accept this reality, but countries and their peoples love to live in a fantasy world...
Congratulations sertorio. This must be one of your most brilliantly incisive posts.
.............................................................................................................

It pays to have insider knowledge. Yes, I agree that the cumulative effect of those Israeli settlements will ultimately be to push the Palestinian residents out of the West Bank. But just in case you think this is due to the implementation of some diabolical Zionist conspiracy against them (as I used to) well, several years ago I had an experience that has given me cause to reconsider.

It was a gathering of local Jewry hosting a visit by a visiting Israeli journalist. As explained by the visitor: the problem is that Is the Israeli Knesset is highly factionalisted. Thanks to their proportional representation electoral system, no one party can ever get majority support. As a consequence no one party can ever gain a parliamentary majority so any Israeli government normally has to be a coalition of several.

(As an aside, I used to think of Jews as being highly intelligent people. But considering how they have made such a political mess of the Jewish state by improvidently choosing a proportional representation system of electing deputies to their knesset has given me pause to reconsider my earlier view. :) )

The visitor from abroad pointed out that when governed by a right wing coalition (for Israel that seems to mean most of the time) which always includes one or two "religious" parties, these are always able to use their leverage within the ruling coalition to get the ministry of housing to sanction the construction of new settlements on the West Bank - all paid for by the Israeli taxpayer.

The settlements are then used to house Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox Jewish settlers: supporters of the two religious parties.

It goes without saying that the more of these Orthodox and ultra-Orthodox enclaves that are carved out of the West Bank, the stronger the religious parties grow within the state of Israel.

Coalition governments everywhere have an inherent weakness. They are very susceptible to manipulation by junior partners on the blackmailers principle; "give us what we want or else we will pull out of the coalition government denying you your parliamentary majority - thereby allowing your political opponents get into power." The Israelim proportional representation system ensures that the State of Israel cannot have anything other than potentially weak coalition governments open to such manipulation.

The practice of building Israeli settlements on the West bank (to house religious extremists?) is therefore a bi-product of Israeli domestic politics.

I used to think that Jews were such clever people. :oops: :oops: :oops:

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cassowary
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Re: Israel

Post by cassowary » Sat Jun 23, 2018 4:47 pm

Neverfail,

That is not the whole picture. Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert offered the Palestinians nearly all of the West bank and part of Jerusalem. But the Palestinians rejected the offer. Those were good offers.

Now, I believe Trump is going to use the stick where the carrot failed. My guess is that his message to the Palestinians is going to be, "The more stubborn you are, the less land you will get. "
The Imp :D

neverfail
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Location: Singapore

Re: sabotaged from within?

Post by neverfail » Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:20 pm

cassowary wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 4:47 pm
Neverfail,

That is not the whole picture. Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert offered the Palestinians nearly all of the West bank and part of Jerusalem. But the Palestinians rejected the offer. Those were good offers.
https://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Pol ... sed-314261

I read this link. Barak, then Israel's defence minister, urged Olmet on the Palestinian side not to accept it. It seems that not even within the Israel government were they of one mind about the terms and conditions (bearing in mind that Israeli governments are normally coalitions of several parties; who even in a working relationship would be unlikely to agree on everything). Another peace deal crucified by politics.

As for Trump using the stick instead of the carrot: don't you think that this will harden the resolve of the Palestinians to resist? No one enjoys being stood over by a foreign power.

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cassowary
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Re: sabotaged from within?

Post by cassowary » Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:43 am

neverfail wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 7:20 pm
cassowary wrote:
Sat Jun 23, 2018 4:47 pm
Neverfail,

That is not the whole picture. Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert offered the Palestinians nearly all of the West bank and part of Jerusalem. But the Palestinians rejected the offer. Those were good offers.
https://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Pol ... sed-314261

I read this link. Barak, then Israel's defence minister, urged Olmet on the Palestinian side not to accept it. It seems that not even within the Israel government were they of one mind about the terms and conditions (bearing in mind that Israeli governments are normally coalitions of several parties; who even in a working relationship would be unlikely to agree on everything). Another peace deal crucified by politics.

As for Trump using the stick instead of the carrot: don't you think that this will harden the resolve of the Palestinians to resist? No one enjoys being stood over by a foreign power.
You should ask Fatty Kim on that. Trump threatened him with 'fire and fury' and he showed up in Singapore. You need the stick as well as the carrot to make the donkey move. The previous president was all carrot and no stick.

The link also said:
“From that time, I am still waiting for Abbas’s telephone call” Ehud Olmert told Sof Hashavua.
Whether Barak told the Palestinians to reject the offer or not, it is still Abbas' decision not to call back. This was a good offer and similar to the one Ehud Barak made when he was PM. It is not Israeli politics that sunk the deal. It was Palestinian stubbornness.

It must be remembered that the West Bank was once part of Jordan. At that time, the Palestinians did not ask for Independence from Jordan. It is not statehood that they want. What they want is the destruction of Israel.
The Imp :D

Jim the Moron
Posts: 1591
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 9:51 pm

Re: Israel

Post by Jim the Moron » Sun Jun 24, 2018 3:08 am

"Kushner says will publish Mideast plan soon"
http://news.trust.org/item/20180624014742-x4sxf

Kushner - "I question President Abbas' ability, or desire, to finish the deal. He has the same talking points that haven't changed in the past 25 years. A peace hasn't been achieved during that period." And yes, it won't be achieved now. All US administrations appear obligated to attempt to broker peace in the Levant. But it is (and they know) only for show. There will never be peace for Israel.

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