Trump takes a calculated risk

neverfail
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Re: No "calculated risk", but "going all-in"

Post by neverfail » Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:01 pm

Jim the Moron wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:23 pm
Alexis wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:54 pm
Alexis wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 2:25 pm
The only - small - limitation of risk is that the answer is announced to be "wise, well considered and in time, with decisive deterrent effect." Meaning that the reprisal shouldn't be for the very near future. Possibly, by that time, Trump will have calmed down a tad bit?
Well, I was wrong about the part in blue.

"Tens" of missiles attack Al-Asad US base in Iraq.


And the US response? It should be withdrawal of all US ground forces from Islamic lands. Let the Islamic interests declare victory.

Awhile back Iran took out a major part of Saudi oil production capabilities. Saudi response? None, in spite of having well over a hundred F-15s (not state-of-the-art, but still potent). The US response? It should be to take out all of Iran's oil production facilities. Disproportionate? Hell, yes. Wake me up when its over.
It looks to me (from your information above) like the Saudis have the capability to take out the Iranian oil production capabilities but are scared to do so - preferring the US to fight as their proxy. Well, since this seems to be more a Saudi-Iran contest than a Iran - USA one America was probably correct in not retaliating on Iran at the time (even though, along with Trump's abandonment of the Kurds in Syria it must have caused all of America's allies abroad to wonder how steadfastly they can rely upon the United states to stand by them.)
............................................................................................................

I now believe that Trump would likely welcome a war with Iran in order to save his own presidency. Beleagured at home by imminent impeachment and a bad press war with Iran would be a nice diversion away from all of that permitting Trump to wrap himself in the flag.

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dagbay
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Re: No "calculated risk", but "going all-in"

Post by dagbay » Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:04 pm

neverfail wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:01 pm
Jim the Moron wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:23 pm
Alexis wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 3:54 pm
Alexis wrote:
Tue Jan 07, 2020 2:25 pm
The only - small - limitation of risk is that the answer is announced to be "wise, well considered and in time, with decisive deterrent effect." Meaning that the reprisal shouldn't be for the very near future. Possibly, by that time, Trump will have calmed down a tad bit?
Well, I was wrong about the part in blue.

"Tens" of missiles attack Al-Asad US base in Iraq.


And the US response? It should be withdrawal of all US ground forces from Islamic lands. Let the Islamic interests declare victory.

Awhile back Iran took out a major part of Saudi oil production capabilities. Saudi response? None, in spite of having well over a hundred F-15s (not state-of-the-art, but still potent). The US response? It should be to take out all of Iran's oil production facilities. Disproportionate? Hell, yes. Wake me up when its over.
It looks to me (from your information above) like the Saudis have the capability to take out the Iranian oil production capabilities but are scared to do so - preferring the US to fight as their proxy. Well, since this seems to be more a Saudi-Iran contest than a Iran - USA one America was probably correct in not retaliating on Iran at the time (even though, along with Trump's abandonment of the Kurds in Syria it must have caused all of America's allies abroad to wonder how steadfastly they can rely upon the United states to stand by them.)
............................................................................................................

I now believe that Trump would likely welcome a war with Iran in order to save his own presidency. Beleagured at home by imminent impeachment and a bad press war with Iran would be a nice diversion away from all of that permitting Trump to wrap himself in the flag.
I don't think at the moment Trump will start any war. It looks from last reports that Iranian missiles which were accurate when they targeted Aramco refineries have mostly missed their targets.... looks like face saving move on the Ayatollah's part. Iran is crippled and cannot fight a conventional war. It can however encourage Muslim groups to do its bidding but Trump has them on notice.
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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cassowary
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Re: Trump takes a calculated risk

Post by cassowary » Tue Jan 07, 2020 11:41 pm

I don’t think Trump is bothered by the impeachment, Neverfail. His approval rating went up and support for removal went down. War is bad politically for a President who promised no more wars.

People will forget the good economy and only talk about the war.
The Imp :D

neverfail
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Re: Trump takes a calculated risk

Post by neverfail » Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:49 am

Well, the Iranian reprisal was measured and surprisingly merciful - only a slap across the wrist. Plain that the Iranian government is trying to be conciliatory.

I just hope that Trump does not see that as weakness and sanction another uncalled for humiliation on Iran.

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Milo
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Re: Trump takes a calculated risk

Post by Milo » Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:20 am

neverfail wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:49 am
Well, the Iranian reprisal was measured and surprisingly merciful - only a slap across the wrist. Plain that the Iranian government is trying to be conciliatory.
Or plain that Iran does not have the capability to do more.

neverfail
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Re: Trump takes a calculated risk

Post by neverfail » Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:55 am

Milo wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:20 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:49 am
Well, the Iranian reprisal was measured and surprisingly merciful - only a slap across the wrist. Plain that the Iranian government is trying to be conciliatory.
Or plain that Iran does not have the capability to do more.
:lol: I believe that Iran (as usual) got its international diplomacy right and in the process made chump-Trump look like an arsehole:

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/ ... 53psw.html

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armchair_pundit
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Re: Trump takes a calculated risk

Post by armchair_pundit » Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:00 pm

neverfail wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:55 am
Milo wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:20 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:49 am
Well, the Iranian reprisal was measured and surprisingly merciful - only a slap across the wrist. Plain that the Iranian government is trying to be conciliatory.
Or plain that Iran does not have the capability to do more.
:lol: I believe that Iran (as usual) got its international diplomacy right and in the process made chump-Trump look like an arsehole:

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/ ... 53psw.html
Seriously, you don't want to walk that back, not even a little bit?

What next, praise for Kim Jong ? Why he sure is good at "providing security" his people, yes? Or maybe join Sertorio for a little bow at the alter of Putin?

No one has unmasked the left like Trump has...

neverfail
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Location: Singapore

Re: Trump takes a calculated risk

Post by neverfail » Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:53 pm

armchair_pundit wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 2:00 pm
No one has unmasked the left like Trump has...
:lol: R U joking?

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cassowary
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Re: Trump takes a calculated risk

Post by cassowary » Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:30 am

neverfail wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:55 am
Milo wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:20 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:49 am
Well, the Iranian reprisal was measured and surprisingly merciful - only a slap across the wrist. Plain that the Iranian government is trying to be conciliatory.
Or plain that Iran does not have the capability to do more.
:lol: I believe that Iran (as usual) got its international diplomacy right and in the process made chump-Trump look like an arsehole:

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/ ... 53psw.html
I think you got it wrong. Trump took a calculated risk by killing Soleimani and WON. Not Iran got its diplomacy correct. They dared not escalate further.

So they fired missiles aimed to miss.
The Imp :D

neverfail
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Location: Singapore

Re: Trump: a big bluff.

Post by neverfail » Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:51 am

cassowary wrote:
Thu Jan 09, 2020 1:30 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 11:55 am
Milo wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:20 am
neverfail wrote:
Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:49 am
Well, the Iranian reprisal was measured and surprisingly merciful - only a slap across the wrist. Plain that the Iranian government is trying to be conciliatory.
Or plain that Iran does not have the capability to do more.
:lol: I believe that Iran (as usual) got its international diplomacy right and in the process made chump-Trump look like an arsehole:

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/ ... 53psw.html
I think you got it wrong. Trump took a calculated risk by killing Soleimani and WON. Not Iran got its diplomacy correct. They dared not escalate further.

So they fired missiles aimed to miss.
Trump folded. Instead of firing missiles back in reprisal for the missile attack on that US base as he had threatened Trump simply added a few more sanctions to the ones already in place - a face saving faux reprisal if ever there were one.

Diplomatically, Trump was done like a dinner by Iran - and the World knows it even if you cannot figure it out.

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