I did not do that Cassowary. As you do not trust PRC statistics then mindful of the lack of PRC cutbacks of orders for raw materials and fuels (except for coal - and that's another story) from my country and then likewise doing as double check against imports from other supplier countries, I find that it support's David Goldman's case that the trade war is hurting the US economy worse than it is hurting China's.
Apparently you do not trust David Goldman's take on this.
That's the point. China's labor (and other production) costs have been rising for years - even well before Trump inaugurated his ill-advised "trade war" with the PRC. Factories that specialized in producing low value goods with a high labor input were closing even before it started. Yet it seems that even with rising costs in China it is still more cost effective to manufacture a range of goods there and import these into the United States than to manufacture these in the USA. Meantime, supply chains to otherwise profitable US manufacturing businesses are being disrupted driving these towards non-profitability while US consumers are finding their purchasing powers under assault. A lose-lose situation is ever there was one.cassowary wrote: ↑Sat Oct 05, 2019 1:37 amAnother (easier) way is to read the studies done by reputable organizations who presumably have more resources than we do.
How about this (old) article from Citibank:
Trade War Damage to China is already done
The damage to China’s economy from the trade war with the U.S. can’t be immediately made good even in the case of a resolution with President Donald Trump, Citigroup economists say.
That’s because the tariff war is underlining China’s rising cost of labor at a time when the job market is under pressure, Citi economists led by Liu Li-Gang said in their 2019 economic outlook report.
"Could" (not will) is the operative word.
What is 4.4 million jobs in a nation of 1.4 BILLION? A drop in the Ocean.
Yet according to Spengler it is training more people with high-tech and engineering skills than any other country on Earth -far more than the USA. The PRC is likely to have outgrown the need for low value, high labor input exports in favour of higher grade stuff. Cost pressures would be driving it in that direction. Japan and South Korea in their turn went through the same mill several years ago. It is a culling process brought on by rising average incomes and rising production costs that go with it.
Not necessarily. As you concede it is an OLD study likely by now superseded by changing events since. If China's economy is currently slowing down then so is everyone else's at present - including Ours, Singapore's and that of the USA. I don't think that US tariffs on Chinese goods have much to do with China's slowdown but a lot to do with America's.cassowary wrote: ↑Sat Oct 05, 2019 1:37 amDoesn't this carry more weight than your conclusion based on Australia's exports to China? That's just one data point. I presume that Citibank has a team to study these things and must have taken Australian exports into considertion as well. There seems to be real damage done to China.
Similar trends in a loss of consumer confidence worldwide - in case you are unaware that the world is currently on the brink of a major recession.cassowary wrote: ↑Sat Oct 05, 2019 1:37 amOr how about this (new) one:
US-China trade war could slow global manufacturing activity into start of 2020, economists warn
So everybody is suffering. To think that China is somehow exempt from the ill effects of the trade war is mistaken.China’s manufacturing activity contracted for a fifth straight month in September, while Germany and the United States dropped to their lowest levels since June 2009
I know you don't like the US and especially Trump. So your desire for US failure may be wishful thinking.
Here is another one, this time from SCMP:
China data shows economic growth slowing as impact of trade war with US intensifies
This 11.7% number comes from the Chinese government, which are notoriously unreliable. Maybe the real number is 20%?Year-on year car sales down by 11.7 per cent as consumer confidence drops
Real estate, e-commerce and electronics sectors suffer weaker demand
So CASSOWARY: what the f*** are you trying to prove?