cassowary wrote: ↑
Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:03 pm
neverfail wrote: ↑
Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:35 pm
cassowary wrote: ↑
Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:50 am
The problem is that Chinese statistics are not reliable. No one can say for sure if the US or China is suffering more.
David Goldman is no fool. He would have taken that into account.
While the accuracy of PRC statistics might be open to conjecture, Australian statistics are not. As the reader may see from this link Australian exports to the PRC continue to rise - in the midst of a world where global trade is shrinking
Since a fairly high pro-rata
of Australian exports to China comprise raw materials for industrial use, that strong export performance could only happen if the PRC domestic economy were still going strong.
I already refuted this. Just because one country shows increased exports to China is like saying its summer because you spotted one swallow.
If you recall, I gave you a link showing that Singapore ‘s exports to China has fallen. So to prove your case, you need to go tabulate the exports and imports from all countries to China.
You cannot base your conclusion on just your country’s exports to China.
I can and do, because the nature
of what Australia exports to China is very different, quite dissimilar, to Singapore's range of exports to that country.
I was at pains to point out earlier that our exports to China were dominated in bulk and volume by industrial raw materials - which Singapore does not produce at all. The leading item is iron ore where export volumes and prices have both held up. Iron ore is used almost exclusively in the production of ferrous metals for which it is indispensable. When a country's usage of ferrous metals production is rising then it indicates that likewise demand for these metals must be strong also.
(Really Cassowary: either you overlooked by mention of industrial raw materials in our export inventory; in which case your comprehension leaves something to be desired or else your desire to see harm come to the PRC is so one-eyed that you must be in a state of denial on this subject
Since ferrous metal products from the PRC must have taken a hit from declining global demand (and the US trade war) then the only conclusion I can draw is that the compensating demand must be domestic (e.g. in their building construction business).
Now, what does Singapore export to China? Compared to Australia, higher value added stuff such as electronics and petrochemicals. Yet alas for Singapore, its exports of these products seem to have dropped to everywhere else as well (except possibly to Australia, which would be an export partner of lesser value compared to the PRC or Hong Kong). Further, it has been this very range of export type that seems to have suffered the biggest fall in the current decline in global trade now taking place.
Further, very likely the PRC is now stronger in the production of import substitutes for these same products.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/bu ... n-11726888
In support of my case that the PRC is currently not doing too badly, I draw your attention to another key import, oil and natural gas. These are still rising strongly.
According to China Custom’s statistics, crude oil imports rose 10.1% in 2018 versus the previous year to a record 461.9 million tons, or 9.24 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). This establishes China as the top crude oil importer for the second year running. Presently, Russia is China’s top crude oil supplier, followed by Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iraq, and Oman. The United States was the fastest growing crude oil supplier to China in 2018, up by 1,994% since 2016. New refinery capacity and strategic inventory stockpiling, combined with declining domestic oil production, were the major factors contributing to the recent increase in China’s crude oil imports.
Fossil fuels usage are normally a very sensitive indicator to a country's state of economic vigor or otherwise.
I rest my case!