Can Trump back away from trade war in time to avoid recession?

neverfail
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Can Trump back away from trade war in time to avoid recession?

Post by neverfail » Thu Oct 03, 2019 5:11 am

Surveys show China is suffering less than America, quite the opposite of what US president has been telling voters
Collapsing US export orders dragged down the widely-followed National Association of Purchasing Managers’ index for industrial production to the lowest level since 2009. Two days earlier, China’s Caixin manufacturing survey reported a second month of modest improvement. The two surveys show that China is suffering less from the effects of the trade war than the United States, quite the opposite of what President Donald Trump has insisted during the past year. I have been warning this would happen for more than a year.
By DAVID P. GOLDMAN

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/10/artic ... recession/
The problem is that the overall volume of world trade has shrunk, and the volume of export orders for every major trading economy has shrunk even more. Even if President Trump moved quickly to a trade deal with China, which seems unlikely, the after-effects of uncertainty will depress economic activity for some months to come. His ill-conceived China policy endangers his chances of re-election in 2020.

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cassowary
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Re: Can Trump back away from trade war in time to avoid recession?

Post by cassowary » Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:50 am

The problem is that Chinese statistics are not reliable. No one can say for sure if the US or China is suffering more.
The Imp :D

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Doc
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Re: Can Trump back away from trade war in time to avoid recession?

Post by Doc » Thu Oct 03, 2019 7:50 am

cassowary wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:50 am
The problem is that Chinese statistics are not reliable. No one can say for sure if the US or China is suffering more.
When the Chinese leadership starts talking up the long march you can be sure they aren't having a picnic.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

neverfail
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Re: Can Trump back away from trade war in time to avoid recession?

Post by neverfail » Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:35 pm

cassowary wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:50 am
The problem is that Chinese statistics are not reliable. No one can say for sure if the US or China is suffering more.
David Goldman is no fool. He would have taken that into account.

While the accuracy of PRC statistics might be open to conjecture, Australian statistics are not. As the reader may see from this link Australian exports to the PRC continue to rise - in the midst of a world where global trade is shrinking:

https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/exports-to-china

Since a fairly high pro-rata of Australian exports to China comprise raw materials for industrial use, that strong export performance could only happen if the PRC domestic economy were still going strong.

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Doc
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Re: Can Trump back away from trade war in time to avoid recession?

Post by Doc » Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:55 pm

neverfail wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:35 pm
cassowary wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:50 am
The problem is that Chinese statistics are not reliable. No one can say for sure if the US or China is suffering more.
David Goldman is no fool. He would have taken that into account.

While the accuracy of PRC statistics might be open to conjecture, Australian statistics are not. As the reader may see from this link Australian exports to the PRC continue to rise - in the midst of a world where global trade is shrinking:

https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/exports-to-china

Since a fairly high pro-rata of Australian exports to China comprise raw materials for industrial use, that strong export performance could only happen if the PRC domestic economy were still going strong.
If the CCP is pumping more money into its economy that would explain it.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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cassowary
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Re: Can Trump back away from trade war in time to avoid recession?

Post by cassowary » Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:03 pm

neverfail wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:35 pm
cassowary wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:50 am
The problem is that Chinese statistics are not reliable. No one can say for sure if the US or China is suffering more.
David Goldman is no fool. He would have taken that into account.

While the accuracy of PRC statistics might be open to conjecture, Australian statistics are not. As the reader may see from this link Australian exports to the PRC continue to rise - in the midst of a world where global trade is shrinking:

https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/exports-to-china

Since a fairly high pro-rata of Australian exports to China comprise raw materials for industrial use, that strong export performance could only happen if the PRC domestic economy were still going strong.
I already refuted this. Just because one country shows increased exports to China is like saying its summer because you spotted one swallow.

If you recall, I gave you a link showing that Singapore ‘s exports to China has fallen. So to prove your case, you need to go tabulate the exports and imports from all countries to China.

You cannot base your conclusion on just your country’s exports to China.
The Imp :D

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Re: Can Trump back away from trade war in time to avoid recession?

Post by neverfail » Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:53 pm

cassowary wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:03 pm
neverfail wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:35 pm
cassowary wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:50 am
The problem is that Chinese statistics are not reliable. No one can say for sure if the US or China is suffering more.
David Goldman is no fool. He would have taken that into account.

While the accuracy of PRC statistics might be open to conjecture, Australian statistics are not. As the reader may see from this link Australian exports to the PRC continue to rise - in the midst of a world where global trade is shrinking:

https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/exports-to-china

Since a fairly high pro-rata of Australian exports to China comprise raw materials for industrial use, that strong export performance could only happen if the PRC domestic economy were still going strong.
I already refuted this. Just because one country shows increased exports to China is like saying its summer because you spotted one swallow.

If you recall, I gave you a link showing that Singapore ‘s exports to China has fallen. So to prove your case, you need to go tabulate the exports and imports from all countries to China.

You cannot base your conclusion on just your country’s exports to China.
I can and do, because the nature of what Australia exports to China is very different, quite dissimilar, to Singapore's range of exports to that country.

I was at pains to point out earlier that our exports to China were dominated in bulk and volume by industrial raw materials - which Singapore does not produce at all. The leading item is iron ore where export volumes and prices have both held up. Iron ore is used almost exclusively in the production of ferrous metals for which it is indispensable. When a country's usage of ferrous metals production is rising then it indicates that likewise demand for these metals must be strong also.

(Really Cassowary: either you overlooked by mention of industrial raw materials in our export inventory; in which case your comprehension leaves something to be desired or else your desire to see harm come to the PRC is so one-eyed that you must be in a state of denial on this subject :lol: ).

Since ferrous metal products from the PRC must have taken a hit from declining global demand (and the US trade war) then the only conclusion I can draw is that the compensating demand must be domestic (e.g. in their building construction business).

Now, what does Singapore export to China? Compared to Australia, higher value added stuff such as electronics and petrochemicals. Yet alas for Singapore, its exports of these products seem to have dropped to everywhere else as well (except possibly to Australia, which would be an export partner of lesser value compared to the PRC or Hong Kong). Further, it has been this very range of export type that seems to have suffered the biggest fall in the current decline in global trade now taking place.

Further, very likely the PRC is now stronger in the production of import substitutes for these same products.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/bu ... n-11726888

In support of my case that the PRC is currently not doing too badly, I draw your attention to another key import, oil and natural gas. These are still rising strongly.

https://www.export.gov/article?id=China-Oil-and-Gas
Crude Oil
According to China Custom’s statistics, crude oil imports rose 10.1% in 2018 versus the previous year to a record 461.9 million tons, or 9.24 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). This establishes China as the top crude oil importer for the second year running. Presently, Russia is China’s top crude oil supplier, followed by Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iraq, and Oman. The United States was the fastest growing crude oil supplier to China in 2018, up by 1,994% since 2016. New refinery capacity and strategic inventory stockpiling, combined with declining domestic oil production, were the major factors contributing to the recent increase in China’s crude oil imports.
Fossil fuels usage are normally a very sensitive indicator to a country's state of economic vigor or otherwise.

I rest my case! :D

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cassowary
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Re: Can Trump back away from trade war in time to avoid recession?

Post by cassowary » Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:49 pm

neverfail wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:53 pm
cassowary wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:03 pm
neverfail wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:35 pm
cassowary wrote:
Thu Oct 03, 2019 6:50 am
The problem is that Chinese statistics are not reliable. No one can say for sure if the US or China is suffering more.
David Goldman is no fool. He would have taken that into account.

While the accuracy of PRC statistics might be open to conjecture, Australian statistics are not. As the reader may see from this link Australian exports to the PRC continue to rise - in the midst of a world where global trade is shrinking:

https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/exports-to-china

Since a fairly high pro-rata of Australian exports to China comprise raw materials for industrial use, that strong export performance could only happen if the PRC domestic economy were still going strong.
I already refuted this. Just because one country shows increased exports to China is like saying its summer because you spotted one swallow.

If you recall, I gave you a link showing that Singapore ‘s exports to China has fallen. So to prove your case, you need to go tabulate the exports and imports from all countries to China.

You cannot base your conclusion on just your country’s exports to China.
I can and do, because the nature of what Australia exports to China is very different, quite dissimilar, to Singapore's range of exports to that country.

I was at pains to point out earlier that our exports to China were dominated in bulk and volume by industrial raw materials - which Singapore does not produce at all. The leading item is iron ore where export volumes and prices have both held up. Iron ore is used almost exclusively in the production of ferrous metals for which it is indispensable. When a country's usage of ferrous metals production is rising then it indicates that likewise demand for these metals must be strong also.

(Really Cassowary: either you overlooked by mention of industrial raw materials in our export inventory; in which case your comprehension leaves something to be desired or else your desire to see harm come to the PRC is so one-eyed that you must be in a state of denial on this subject :lol: ).

Since ferrous metal products from the PRC must have taken a hit from declining global demand (and the US trade war) then the only conclusion I can draw is that the compensating demand must be domestic (e.g. in their building construction business).

Now, what does Singapore export to China? Compared to Australia, higher value added stuff such as electronics and petrochemicals. Yet alas for Singapore, its exports of these products seem to have dropped to everywhere else as well (except possibly to Australia, which would be an export partner of lesser value compared to the PRC or Hong Kong). Further, it has been this very range of export type that seems to have suffered the biggest fall in the current decline in global trade now taking place.

Further, very likely the PRC is now stronger in the production of import substitutes for these same products.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/bu ... n-11726888

In support of my case that the PRC is currently not doing too badly, I draw your attention to another key import, oil and natural gas. These are still rising strongly.

https://www.export.gov/article?id=China-Oil-and-Gas
Crude Oil
According to China Custom’s statistics, crude oil imports rose 10.1% in 2018 versus the previous year to a record 461.9 million tons, or 9.24 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). This establishes China as the top crude oil importer for the second year running. Presently, Russia is China’s top crude oil supplier, followed by Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iraq, and Oman. The United States was the fastest growing crude oil supplier to China in 2018, up by 1,994% since 2016. New refinery capacity and strategic inventory stockpiling, combined with declining domestic oil production, were the major factors contributing to the recent increase in China’s crude oil imports.
Fossil fuels usage are normally a very sensitive indicator to a country's state of economic vigor or otherwise.

I rest my case! :D
Maybe the increase of imports of iron ore from Australia is because it cut imports from other countries such as Canada and the US. Remember they had a spat with Canada for the arrest of the Huawei executive.

Your statistic on china’s Import of fossil fuel comes from the Chinese government. As I said, Chinese government statistics are not reliable.
The Imp :D

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Re: Can Trump back away from trade war in time to avoid recession?

Post by neverfail » Fri Oct 04, 2019 3:37 pm

cassowary wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:49 pm

Maybe the increase of imports of iron ore from Australia is because it cut imports from other countries such as Canada and the US. Remember they had a spat with Canada for the arrest of the Huawei executive.
You are guessing here, Cass.

To my understanding China never imported iron ore from the USA anyhow while (it surprised me to discover this, given that Canada has large deposits of magnetite iron ore in its east) Canada actually imports iron ore from the USA.

Actually Brazil, China's second biggest supplier, has suffered a shortfall in exports ever since the tragic collapse of a tailings dam at one of their biggest iron ore mines. There have also been some problems this year at the Australian end of China's supply chain. But that reflects supply rather than demand.
Supply from Brazil has fallen following the deadly rupture of a tailings dam in January. Elsewhere, Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) (RIO.L), the world’s largest iron ore miner, has cut its forecast for 2019 shipments from the Australian region of Pilbara due to operational problems.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... 0said%20Lu.
cassowary wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:49 pm
Your statistic on china’s Import of fossil fuel comes from the Chinese government. As I said, Chinese government statistics are not reliable.
But they are not always fake either.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1PJ05W

Russia and Saudi Arabia both record increases of Chinese imports from their domains.

...and then there is gas:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policie ... l-gas-2019

Nation’s demand for the fuel to rise by 60 per cent between 2017 and 2023 to 376 billion cubic metres, International Energy Agency says
I know from the number of contracts they have signed with our producers and the gas liquification plants being build out here that, while Australia is likely to suffer declining shipments of coal up there this will be cancelled out by vastly increased deliveries of natural gas.

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cassowary
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Re: Can Trump back away from trade war in time to avoid recession?

Post by cassowary » Sat Oct 05, 2019 1:37 am

neverfail wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 3:37 pm
cassowary wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:49 pm

Maybe the increase of imports of iron ore from Australia is because it cut imports from other countries such as Canada and the US. Remember they had a spat with Canada for the arrest of the Huawei executive.
You are guessing here, Cass.

To my understanding China never imported iron ore from the USA anyhow while (it surprised me to discover this, given that Canada has large deposits of magnetite iron ore in its east) Canada actually imports iron ore from the USA.

Actually Brazil, China's second biggest supplier, has suffered a shortfall in exports ever since the tragic collapse of a tailings dam at one of their biggest iron ore mines. There have also been some problems this year at the Australian end of China's supply chain. But that reflects supply rather than demand.
Supply from Brazil has fallen following the deadly rupture of a tailings dam in January. Elsewhere, Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) (RIO.L), the world’s largest iron ore miner, has cut its forecast for 2019 shipments from the Australian region of Pilbara due to operational problems.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... 0said%20Lu.
cassowary wrote:
Fri Oct 04, 2019 2:49 pm
Your statistic on china’s Import of fossil fuel comes from the Chinese government. As I said, Chinese government statistics are not reliable.
But they are not always fake either.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chin ... SKCN1PJ05W

Russia and Saudi Arabia both record increases of Chinese imports from their domains.

...and then there is gas:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/policie ... l-gas-2019

Nation’s demand for the fuel to rise by 60 per cent between 2017 and 2023 to 376 billion cubic metres, International Energy Agency says
I know from the number of contracts they have signed with our producers and the gas liquification plants being build out here that, while Australia is likely to suffer declining shipments of coal up there this will be cancelled out by vastly increased deliveries of natural gas.
We cannot pick and choose a few countries. If you trust Chinese stats, that's the end of the discussion. If you don't, then you got to piece together from the imports and exports from and to China of all other countries. That's the only way to know how well or badly the Chinese economy is doing.

.....................................................................................................................

Another (easier) way is to read the studies done by reputable organizations who presumably have more resources than we do.

How about this (old) article from Citibank:

Trade War Damage to China is already done
The damage to China’s economy from the trade war with the U.S. can’t be immediately made good even in the case of a resolution with President Donald Trump, Citigroup economists say.

That’s because the tariff war is underlining China’s rising cost of labor at a time when the job market is under pressure, Citi economists led by Liu Li-Gang said in their 2019 economic outlook report. The trade war with the U.S. could cut China’s export growth by almost half next year, putting around 4.4 million jobs at risk, the economists wrote.

“It is a reality that China is losing some of its cost competitiveness, especially in labor-intensive and low-value-added sectors,” according to the report. “Although shifting the supply chains is not feasible in real time, manufacturers may seriously weigh the option of leaving China if punitive tariffs last longer than expected."
Doesn't this carry more weight than your conclusion based on Australia's exports to China? That's just one data point. I presume that Citibank has a team to study these things and must have taken Australian exports into considertion as well. There seems to be real damage done to China.

Or how about this (new) one:

US-China trade war could slow global manufacturing activity into start of 2020, economists warn
China’s manufacturing activity contracted for a fifth straight month in September, while Germany and the United States dropped to their lowest levels since June 2009
So everybody is suffering. To think that China is somehow exempt from the ill effects of the trade war is mistaken.

I know you don't like the US and especially Trump. So your desire for US failure may be wishful thinking.

Here is another one, this time from SCMP:

China data shows economic growth slowing as impact of trade war with US intensifies
Year-on year car sales down by 11.7 per cent as consumer confidence drops
Real estate, e-commerce and electronics sectors suffer weaker demand
This 11.7% number comes from the Chinese government, which are notoriously unreliable. Maybe the real number is 20%?
The Imp :D

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