Trump has lost the trade war - Spengler.

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neverfail
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Trump has lost the trade war - Spengler.

Post by neverfail » Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:58 am

As the United States and China escalate the past year’s trade dispute into full-scale economic war, the decisive fact in the conflict has gone entirely unmentioned: China has already won the critical engagement in the conflict.

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/artic ... of-defeat/

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Doc
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Re: Trump has lost the trade war - Spengler.

Post by Doc » Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:43 am

neverfail wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:58 am
As the United States and China escalate the past year’s trade dispute into full-scale economic war, the decisive fact in the conflict has gone entirely unmentioned: China has already won the critical engagement in the conflict.

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/artic ... of-defeat/
What David does not seem to address is the collapse of the Chinese economy.

Plus during the G7 this is there for everyone to see.



Xi is weak.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Sertorio
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The War the US is About to Lose

Post by Sertorio » Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:49 am

Donald Trump’s dance of defeat
China has already won the critical engagement in the conflict between Washington and Beijing
By Spengler

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/artic ... of-defeat/
Spengler is right, once more, but Americans will not believe him...

neverfail
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Re: The War the US is About to Lose

Post by neverfail » Mon Aug 26, 2019 6:27 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Mon Aug 26, 2019 3:49 am
Donald Trump’s dance of defeat
China has already won the critical engagement in the conflict between Washington and Beijing
By Spengler

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/artic ... of-defeat/
Spengler is right, once more, but Americans will not believe him...
Of course they won't.

"A prophet is never honored in his own time or in his own country."


(That truism, I believe, originated from the mouth of the Hebrew prophet Jeremiah and were, centuries later, also uttered by Jesus Christ.)

neverfail
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Re: Trump has lost the trade war - Spengler.

Post by neverfail » Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:47 am

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/artic ... -in-sight/

A thoughtful, calm and encouraging President Trump spoke to the press in Biarritz, France on Aug. 26, in sharp contrast to the emotional, enraged and threatening US leader who tweeted perdition against Beijing late last week. Chinese President Xi Jinping today was a “great leader,” not an “enemy” as Trump called him last week.
In other words, Trump is full of shit.
Asked about the Chinese Vice-Premier’s statement overnight that China was “willing to resolve the issue through consultations and cooperation in a calm attitude,” Trump assured a Chinese journalist that the US was willing to do the same.

Despite Trump’s claim that the US and China were close to a deal, however, Washington and Beijing have radically different ideas about what such a deal might look like.

The US president had the benefit of two days’ of consultation at the Group of Seven summit with at least one foreign leader whom he likes and respects, the United Kingdom’s new Prime Minister Boris Johnson. According to British press reports, Johnson urgently advised Trump to de-escalate the trade war with China, and the US president evidently listened.
If Johnson was able to do that then he has achieved something worthwhile.
Trump nonetheless restated a position that China finds entirely unacceptable, namely that any deal “has to be better for us than it is for them” because of his perception that China has taken advantage of the United States for many years. In the past, Trump’s negotiators have insisted that some US tariffs must remain in place even after a deal is concluded, and that the US must have the unilateral right to impose new tariffs if a bilateral consultation mechanism fails to resolve future issues to mutual satisfaction.
That would be unacceptable to the government of any sovereign nation other than a vassal state. A trade agreement is supposed to be freely negotiated and of mutual benefit to both - not stacked in favour of one signatory.
There was no mention, moreover, of the tech war dimension of the conflict. The United States attempted to derail China’s national champion in telecommunications, Huawei Technologies, as it rolled out 5th Generation mobile broadband, first by threatening its allies with a shutdown of intelligence cooperation and then by blocking the sale of components to Huawei by US suppliers.
Would Trump even have the mental grasp to comprehend the significance?
To Washington’s embarrassment, all of America’s allies except for Japan and New Zealand ignored the threats,...

Australia did too - sadly!
...and Huawei was able to proceed with the 5G rollout without US components. Even worse for Washington, Huawei released its own chipsets to the market, threatening the world position of such American tech giants as Qualcomm and Nvidia.

As I reported yesterday on this site, China has already won the first and most important engagement in the economic war with the United States, by launching a game-changing Chinese technology on the world market for the first time since the invention of gunpowder. That is an historic win for China, and Washington has sent confused signals about its prospective response.
China signaled Aug. 7 that it had lost patience with the twists and turns of Trump’s negotiating stance, and would pursue its own economic interests regardless of Washington’s sensibilities.


China can now afford to.
It did so by allowing the RMB to depreciate below 7 to the US dollar, an especially sore point with the Trump Administration, which proceeded to label China a “currency manipulator” – a severe form of diplomatic escalation.
It only allowed it to - it apparently did not force it to fall. This implies that for once the PRC Central Bank permitted 4X market forces to have their way and sell the Yuan down to a more sustainable exchange rate.

(Contrary to all of the noise that Trump and his cyberspace echos have been making ;) )
And when President Trump announced a 10% tariffs on Chinese goods not covered by the previous round of tariffs, China last week announced tariffs on $75 billion of US imports, provoking the Friday Twitter-storm and a nearly 3% drop in US stock prices.
With the clear advantage that China has gained from the 5G broadband breakthrough, it can afford to hold out against Trump for better.

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Doc
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Re: Trump has lost the trade war - Spengler.

Post by Doc » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:32 am

neverfail wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:47 am
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/artic ... -in-sight/

A thoughtful, calm and encouraging President Trump spoke to the press in Biarritz, France on Aug. 26, in sharp contrast to the emotional, enraged and threatening US leader who tweeted perdition against Beijing late last week. Chinese President Xi Jinping today was a “great leader,” not an “enemy” as Trump called him last week.
In other words, Trump is full of shit.
Asked about the Chinese Vice-Premier’s statement overnight that China was “willing to resolve the issue through consultations and cooperation in a calm attitude,” Trump assured a Chinese journalist that the US was willing to do the same.

Despite Trump’s claim that the US and China were close to a deal, however, Washington and Beijing have radically different ideas about what such a deal might look like.

The US president had the benefit of two days’ of consultation at the Group of Seven summit with at least one foreign leader whom he likes and respects, the United Kingdom’s new Prime Minister Boris Johnson. According to British press reports, Johnson urgently advised Trump to de-escalate the trade war with China, and the US president evidently listened.
If Johnson was able to do that then he has achieved something worthwhile.
Trump nonetheless restated a position that China finds entirely unacceptable, namely that any deal “has to be better for us than it is for them” because of his perception that China has taken advantage of the United States for many years. In the past, Trump’s negotiators have insisted that some US tariffs must remain in place even after a deal is concluded, and that the US must have the unilateral right to impose new tariffs if a bilateral consultation mechanism fails to resolve future issues to mutual satisfaction.
That would be unacceptable to the government of any sovereign nation other than a vassal state. A trade agreement is supposed to be freely negotiated and of mutual benefit to both - not stacked in favour of one signatory.
There was no mention, moreover, of the tech war dimension of the conflict. The United States attempted to derail China’s national champion in telecommunications, Huawei Technologies, as it rolled out 5th Generation mobile broadband, first by threatening its allies with a shutdown of intelligence cooperation and then by blocking the sale of components to Huawei by US suppliers.
Would Trump even have the mental grasp to comprehend the significance?
To Washington’s embarrassment, all of America’s allies except for Japan and New Zealand ignored the threats,...

Australia did too - sadly!
...and Huawei was able to proceed with the 5G rollout without US components. Even worse for Washington, Huawei released its own chipsets to the market, threatening the world position of such American tech giants as Qualcomm and Nvidia.

As I reported yesterday on this site, China has already won the first and most important engagement in the economic war with the United States, by launching a game-changing Chinese technology on the world market for the first time since the invention of gunpowder. That is an historic win for China, and Washington has sent confused signals about its prospective response.
China signaled Aug. 7 that it had lost patience with the twists and turns of Trump’s negotiating stance, and would pursue its own economic interests regardless of Washington’s sensibilities.


China can now afford to.
It did so by allowing the RMB to depreciate below 7 to the US dollar, an especially sore point with the Trump Administration, which proceeded to label China a “currency manipulator” – a severe form of diplomatic escalation.
It only allowed it to - it apparently did not force it to fall. This implies that for once the PRC Central Bank permitted 4X market forces to have their way and sell the Yuan down to a more sustainable exchange rate.

(Contrary to all of the noise that Trump and his cyberspace echos have been making ;) )
And when President Trump announced a 10% tariffs on Chinese goods not covered by the previous round of tariffs, China last week announced tariffs on $75 billion of US imports, provoking the Friday Twitter-storm and a nearly 3% drop in US stock prices.
With the clear advantage that China has gained from the 5G broadband breakthrough, it can afford to hold out against Trump for better.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: Trump has lost the trade war - Spengler.

Post by Doc » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:56 am

Doc wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:32 am
neverfail wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:47 am
https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/artic ... -in-sight/

A thoughtful, calm and encouraging President Trump spoke to the press in Biarritz, France on Aug. 26, in sharp contrast to the emotional, enraged and threatening US leader who tweeted perdition against Beijing late last week. Chinese President Xi Jinping today was a “great leader,” not an “enemy” as Trump called him last week.
In other words, Trump is full of shit.
Asked about the Chinese Vice-Premier’s statement overnight that China was “willing to resolve the issue through consultations and cooperation in a calm attitude,” Trump assured a Chinese journalist that the US was willing to do the same.

Despite Trump’s claim that the US and China were close to a deal, however, Washington and Beijing have radically different ideas about what such a deal might look like.

The US president had the benefit of two days’ of consultation at the Group of Seven summit with at least one foreign leader whom he likes and respects, the United Kingdom’s new Prime Minister Boris Johnson. According to British press reports, Johnson urgently advised Trump to de-escalate the trade war with China, and the US president evidently listened.
If Johnson was able to do that then he has achieved something worthwhile.
Trump nonetheless restated a position that China finds entirely unacceptable, namely that any deal “has to be better for us than it is for them” because of his perception that China has taken advantage of the United States for many years. In the past, Trump’s negotiators have insisted that some US tariffs must remain in place even after a deal is concluded, and that the US must have the unilateral right to impose new tariffs if a bilateral consultation mechanism fails to resolve future issues to mutual satisfaction.
That would be unacceptable to the government of any sovereign nation other than a vassal state. A trade agreement is supposed to be freely negotiated and of mutual benefit to both - not stacked in favour of one signatory.
There was no mention, moreover, of the tech war dimension of the conflict. The United States attempted to derail China’s national champion in telecommunications, Huawei Technologies, as it rolled out 5th Generation mobile broadband, first by threatening its allies with a shutdown of intelligence cooperation and then by blocking the sale of components to Huawei by US suppliers.
Would Trump even have the mental grasp to comprehend the significance?
To Washington’s embarrassment, all of America’s allies except for Japan and New Zealand ignored the threats,...

Australia did too - sadly!
...and Huawei was able to proceed with the 5G rollout without US components. Even worse for Washington, Huawei released its own chipsets to the market, threatening the world position of such American tech giants as Qualcomm and Nvidia.

As I reported yesterday on this site, China has already won the first and most important engagement in the economic war with the United States, by launching a game-changing Chinese technology on the world market for the first time since the invention of gunpowder. That is an historic win for China, and Washington has sent confused signals about its prospective response.
China signaled Aug. 7 that it had lost patience with the twists and turns of Trump’s negotiating stance, and would pursue its own economic interests regardless of Washington’s sensibilities.


China can now afford to.
It did so by allowing the RMB to depreciate below 7 to the US dollar, an especially sore point with the Trump Administration, which proceeded to label China a “currency manipulator” – a severe form of diplomatic escalation.
It only allowed it to - it apparently did not force it to fall. This implies that for once the PRC Central Bank permitted 4X market forces to have their way and sell the Yuan down to a more sustainable exchange rate.

(Contrary to all of the noise that Trump and his cyberspace echos have been making ;) )
And when President Trump announced a 10% tariffs on Chinese goods not covered by the previous round of tariffs, China last week announced tariffs on $75 billion of US imports, provoking the Friday Twitter-storm and a nearly 3% drop in US stock prices.
With the clear advantage that China has gained from the 5G broadband breakthrough, it can afford to hold out against Trump for better.
And more importantly:
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: Trump has lost the trade war - Spengler.

Post by lzzrdgrrl » Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:37 am

neverfail wrote:As the United States and China escalate the past year’s trade dispute into full-scale economic war, the decisive fact in the conflict has gone entirely unmentioned: China has already won the critical engagement in the conflict.

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/artic ... of-defeat/
Somewhat amended blog post on PJM:

https://pjmedia.com/spengler/trade-wars ... ikes-back/

In a comment to the AT post, Henri expresses the concern I'd like to comment on:
M Henri Day wrote:The sad thing about the technical challenge that China's enterprises are now mounting to US dominance in this field is that it has not evoked a response similar to that of the US when the Soviet Union took the lead in space, i e, to work harder and become better, but rather one of, by means of «bans» and «sanctions» (and, let it be noted, by getting vassals to detain important personnel), attempting to sabotage the other party's efforts. It would seem that the optimism and self-confidence which characterised the US some six decades ago has disappeared, to be replaced by a vicious attitude of «beggar thy neighbour»....
The mass of responses to both the AT and PJM editions suggests to me that one; Americans don't seem to want to look at the full scope of the problem, and two; don't see any need to put in considerable effort in solving it. Two things that David may consider (or should.....) in following posts......

1) How utterly consumed we are in the current cultural civil war and how little outside influences are doint to mediate it.......

2) That the current election cycle may be determined by existential issues in defiance of economic conditions. People may choose Trump even if it means a collapsed stock market, a crippled dollar and fewer jobs, because sufficient bread doesn't mean anything if you give up your soul........
I have a certain notoriety among the lesser gods........

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Doc
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Re: Trump has lost the trade war - Spengler.

Post by Doc » Tue Aug 27, 2019 11:34 am

lzzrdgrrl wrote:
Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:37 am
neverfail wrote:As the United States and China escalate the past year’s trade dispute into full-scale economic war, the decisive fact in the conflict has gone entirely unmentioned: China has already won the critical engagement in the conflict.

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/08/artic ... of-defeat/
Somewhat amended blog post on PJM:

https://pjmedia.com/spengler/trade-wars ... ikes-back/

In a comment to the AT post, Henri expresses the concern I'd like to comment on:
M Henri Day wrote:The sad thing about the technical challenge that China's enterprises are now mounting to US dominance in this field is that it has not evoked a response similar to that of the US when the Soviet Union took the lead in space, i e, to work harder and become better, but rather one of, by means of «bans» and «sanctions» (and, let it be noted, by getting vassals to detain important personnel), attempting to sabotage the other party's efforts. It would seem that the optimism and self-confidence which characterised the US some six decades ago has disappeared, to be replaced by a vicious attitude of «beggar thy neighbour»....
The mass of responses to both the AT and PJM editions suggests to me that one; Americans don't seem to want to look at the full scope of the problem, and two; don't see any need to put in considerable effort in solving it. Two things that David may consider (or should.....) in following posts......

1) How utterly consumed we are in the current cultural civil war and how little outside influences are doint to mediate it.......

2) That the current election cycle may be determined by existential issues in defiance of economic conditions. People may choose Trump even if it means a collapsed stock market, a crippled dollar and fewer jobs, because sufficient bread doesn't mean anything if you give up your soul........
Or the elite class is in fear of losing some money. **


**Please reference the second video in my previous post.
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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Re: Trump has lost the trade war - Spengler.

Post by Doc » Tue Aug 27, 2019 4:43 pm

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/china- ... r-flatline

China announces it seeks 'calm' end to trade war, as markets tank and currency hits 11-year flatline
“"I fancied myself as some kind of god....It is a sort of disease when you consider yourself some kind of god, the creator of everything, but I feel comfortable about it now since I began to live it out.” -- George Soros

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