a Turkey waits to be plucked.

neverfail
Posts: 2377
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: a Turkey waits to be plucked.

Post by neverfail » Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:06 pm

Milo wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:24 am


And Erdoğan can probably get more backing from the Gulf States, especially Qatar, in exchange for some wet work and foreign policy support.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/ ... 04142.html
Thanks for your post and the link Milo. Duly noted. Yet the $20 billion or so dollars offered by Qatar seems to be a mere drop in the ocean compared to the sums that Turkey really needs just to stabilise then value of its lira:

http://www.atimes.com/article/erdogan-b ... r-to-home/

I mentioned in last post that the Turks are a proud people and their current leader is true to form in that regard. As far as Erdoğan is concerned if anything goes wrong then somebody else must be to blame - i, Erdoğan, am not responsible for anything. In that regard Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey and darn old Trump of the USA are very much alike.

I cannot see how Erdoğan can avoid turning to China for the needed bail-out. When it happens just try pretending that Beijing wont demand and get its pound of flesh in return.

User avatar
Milo
Posts: 1333
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:14 pm

Re: a Turkey waits to be plucked.

Post by Milo » Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:23 pm

neverfail wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:06 pm
Milo wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:24 am


And Erdoğan can probably get more backing from the Gulf States, especially Qatar, in exchange for some wet work and foreign policy support.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/ ... 04142.html
Thanks for your post and the link Milo. Duly noted. Yet the $20 billion or so dollars offered by Qatar seems to be a mere drop in the ocean compared to the sums that Turkey really needs just to stabilise then value of its lira:

http://www.atimes.com/article/erdogan-b ... r-to-home/

I mentioned in last post that the Turks are a proud people and their current leader is true to form in that regard. As far as Erdoğan is concerned if anything goes wrong then somebody else must be to blame - i, Erdoğan, am not responsible for anything. In that regard Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey and darn old Trump of the USA are very much alike.

I cannot see how Erdoğan can avoid turning to China for the needed bail-out. When it happens just try pretending that Beijing wont demand and get its pound of flesh in return.
Yes some countries have already found that out!
Over years of construction and renegotiation with China Harbor Engineering Company, one of Beijing’s largest state-owned enterprises, the Hambantota Port Development Project distinguished itself mostly by failing, as predicted. With tens of thousands of ships passing by along one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, the port drew only 34 ships in 2012.

And then the port became China’s.

Mr. Rajapaksa was voted out of office in 2015, but Sri Lanka’s new government struggled to make payments on the debt he had taken on. Under heavy pressure and after months of negotiations with the Chinese, the government handed over the port and 15,000 acres of land around it for 99 years in December.

The transfer gave China control of territory just a few hundred miles off the shores of a rival, India, and a strategic foothold along a critical commercial and military waterway.

The case is one of the most vivid examples of China’s ambitious use of loans and aid to gain influence around the world — and of its willingness to play hardball to collect.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/worl ... -port.html

China is creating a colonial empire by stealth and capital. It remains to be seen whether they begin to directly grab land too "in a fit of absence of mind".

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robert_Seeley

neverfail
Posts: 2377
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: a Turkey waits to be plucked.

Post by neverfail » Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:40 pm

Milo wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:23 pm
neverfail wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:06 pm
Milo wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:24 am


And Erdoğan can probably get more backing from the Gulf States, especially Qatar, in exchange for some wet work and foreign policy support.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/ ... 04142.html
Thanks for your post and the link Milo. Duly noted. Yet the $20 billion or so dollars offered by Qatar seems to be a mere drop in the ocean compared to the sums that Turkey really needs just to stabilise then value of its lira:

http://www.atimes.com/article/erdogan-b ... r-to-home/

I mentioned in last post that the Turks are a proud people and their current leader is true to form in that regard. As far as Erdoğan is concerned if anything goes wrong then somebody else must be to blame - i, Erdoğan, am not responsible for anything. In that regard Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey and darn old Trump of the USA are very much alike.

I cannot see how Erdoğan can avoid turning to China for the needed bail-out. When it happens just try pretending that Beijing wont demand and get its pound of flesh in return.
Yes some countries have already found that out!
Over years of construction and renegotiation with China Harbor Engineering Company, one of Beijing’s largest state-owned enterprises, the Hambantota Port Development Project distinguished itself mostly by failing, as predicted. With tens of thousands of ships passing by along one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, the port drew only 34 ships in 2012.

And then the port became China’s.

Mr. Rajapaksa was voted out of office in 2015, but Sri Lanka’s new government struggled to make payments on the debt he had taken on. Under heavy pressure and after months of negotiations with the Chinese, the government handed over the port and 15,000 acres of land around it for 99 years in December.

The transfer gave China control of territory just a few hundred miles off the shores of a rival, India, and a strategic foothold along a critical commercial and military waterway.

The case is one of the most vivid examples of China’s ambitious use of loans and aid to gain influence around the world — and of its willingness to play hardball to collect.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/worl ... -port.html

China is creating a colonial empire by stealth and capital. It remains to be seen whether they begin to directly grab land too "in a fit of absence of mind".

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robert_Seeley
Yes Milo. I was thinking exactly of that when I posted the last sentence in my previous post.

The PRC does not seem to be so much building a colonial empire per se as much as a vastly expanded sphere of influence abroad. Lining up overseas, strategically placed ports and bases (like the one it now has in Djibouti on the horn of Africa) is all instrumental in bringing that to pass.

Now, just imagine if China were to gain control of the Bosporus waterway: the sole seaborne entrance connecting the Black Sea to the Aegean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean? What a geostrategic gem that would be, eh!

User avatar
Milo
Posts: 1333
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:14 pm

Re: a Turkey waits to be plucked.

Post by Milo » Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:11 am

neverfail wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:40 pm
Milo wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 7:23 pm
neverfail wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:06 pm
Milo wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 8:24 am


And Erdoğan can probably get more backing from the Gulf States, especially Qatar, in exchange for some wet work and foreign policy support.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/ ... 04142.html
Thanks for your post and the link Milo. Duly noted. Yet the $20 billion or so dollars offered by Qatar seems to be a mere drop in the ocean compared to the sums that Turkey really needs just to stabilise then value of its lira:

http://www.atimes.com/article/erdogan-b ... r-to-home/

I mentioned in last post that the Turks are a proud people and their current leader is true to form in that regard. As far as Erdoğan is concerned if anything goes wrong then somebody else must be to blame - i, Erdoğan, am not responsible for anything. In that regard Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey and darn old Trump of the USA are very much alike.

I cannot see how Erdoğan can avoid turning to China for the needed bail-out. When it happens just try pretending that Beijing wont demand and get its pound of flesh in return.
Yes some countries have already found that out!
Over years of construction and renegotiation with China Harbor Engineering Company, one of Beijing’s largest state-owned enterprises, the Hambantota Port Development Project distinguished itself mostly by failing, as predicted. With tens of thousands of ships passing by along one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, the port drew only 34 ships in 2012.

And then the port became China’s.

Mr. Rajapaksa was voted out of office in 2015, but Sri Lanka’s new government struggled to make payments on the debt he had taken on. Under heavy pressure and after months of negotiations with the Chinese, the government handed over the port and 15,000 acres of land around it for 99 years in December.

The transfer gave China control of territory just a few hundred miles off the shores of a rival, India, and a strategic foothold along a critical commercial and military waterway.

The case is one of the most vivid examples of China’s ambitious use of loans and aid to gain influence around the world — and of its willingness to play hardball to collect.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/worl ... -port.html

China is creating a colonial empire by stealth and capital. It remains to be seen whether they begin to directly grab land too "in a fit of absence of mind".

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Robert_Seeley
Yes Milo. I was thinking exactly of that when I posted the last sentence in my previous post.

The PRC does not seem to be so much building a colonial empire per se as much as a vastly expanded sphere of influence abroad. Lining up overseas, strategically placed ports and bases (like the one it now has in Djibouti on the horn of Africa) is all instrumental in bringing that to pass.

Now, just imagine if China were to gain control of the Bosporus waterway: the sole seaborne entrance connecting the Black Sea to the Aegean Sea and the eastern Mediterranean? What a geostrategic gem that would be, eh!
Indeed!

As to the nature of the Chinese overseas push, don't forget that the Seeley quote, above:

European colonialism began with support of trade through outposts and coaling stations; and expanded to direct government ownership of huge swaths of land.

The questions are: how far will China go, and will they exercise restraint on their own?

neverfail
Posts: 2377
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: a Turkey waits to be plucked.

Post by neverfail » Sat Aug 18, 2018 4:38 pm

Milo wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 8:11 am

Indeed!

As to the nature of the Chinese overseas push, don't forget that the Seeley quote, above:

European colonialism began with support of trade through outposts and coaling stations; and expanded to direct government ownership of huge swaths of land.

The questions are: how far will China go, and will they exercise restraint on their own?
We do not know Milo. That will unfold with the passage of time.

I believe that it was like that with the European overseas empires of yore - they felt their way as they went along - had no master plan for building empires but responded to opportunities as they came along.

Take India and the British for instance. The English East India Company arrived when the subcontinent was under the sovereignty of the Moghul Empire and led by its last strong ruler. The EI Co,. impressed that ruler who granted them lucrative trading concessions - by negotiation, not under duress. I believe that the company shareholders back in London would have been content with just profiting from those commercial concessions forever had the Moghul Empire remained intact but unfortunately it did not. After the death of that emperor the empire went to the pack and soon fragmented into a patchwork of regional principalities. Order broke down, war and banditry became rife. So the E I Co, had to recruit its own private army and become a military-political force just to defend the trading rights it had gained already as well as to fend off foreign competitors like the Dutch and the French.

Having become a military presence, with the help of tactical alliances with native princes they expanded both their territorial domain and pale of responsibility.


No master plan for empire on the subcontinent - just response to unfolding events. The power vacuum brought on by the collapse of Mughal power meant that something, sooner or later, had to get sucked into it. If not the British then perhaps a new invasion from Afghanistan or Persia. Who knows?

Milo, I suggest it will be the same with the PRC. The global expansion will be in direct proportion to Western (and other's)) weakness. Even now the pattern of their expansion has been a matter of probing for weaknesses abroad (like Sri Lanka's government decision to turn its back on Western patrons some years ago) then taking advantage of these.

They will not take on those they respect. Worldwide, respect is all but possibly more so in Asia than elsewhere.

neverfail
Posts: 2377
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: an afterthought to the above:

Post by neverfail » Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:27 pm

Empires grow not so much because the seat of empire is necessarily all that strong (at least when it starts out on that path) but because those they encounter along the way are weak.

User avatar
Milo
Posts: 1333
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:14 pm

Re: an afterthought to the above:

Post by Milo » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:15 am

neverfail wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:27 pm
Empires grow not so much because the seat of empire is necessarily all that strong (at least when it starts out on that path) but because those they encounter along the way are weak.
I buy that.

But if China wants to take over Turkey I say God speed!

neverfail
Posts: 2377
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: an afterthought to the above:

Post by neverfail » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:28 am

Milo wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:15 am
neverfail wrote:
Sat Aug 18, 2018 6:27 pm
Empires grow not so much because the seat of empire is necessarily all that strong (at least when it starts out on that path) but because those they encounter along the way are weak.
I buy that.

But if China wants to take over Turkey I say God speed!
:lol: Ditto me.

neverfail
Posts: 2377
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: how China got Sri Lanka into its oven

Post by neverfail » Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:24 pm

Mahinda Rajapaksa, former president of Sri Lanka thought that he had a bright idea. To redevelop a port in the south of his island country that had been hit hard by the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami. His government wanted to draw in seaborne trade from the busy shipping lanes to the south of his country. Sort of "do a Singapore". All western banks refused him a loan - told him the project was unviable and the Indians rejected his plea for loan funding for the same reason. That did not deter the Chinese:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/worl ... -port.html

In Beijing their foreign ministry must have been eyeing Sri Lanka for years beforehand. Part of their diplomatic analysis would have been from studies of the leadership; with the brief on looking for weaknesses, both political and personal. In the case of Rajapaksa they must have pinpointed his chief weakness as vanity combined with cluelessness about economics. When Rajapaksa turned to the PRC for funding of his pet port project they must have seen him and his country as a nice plump turkey presenting themselves to be plucked.

User avatar
Milo
Posts: 1333
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:14 pm

Re: how China got Sri Lanka into its oven

Post by Milo » Sun Aug 19, 2018 11:09 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:24 pm
Mahinda Rajapaksa, former president of Sri Lanka thought that he had a bright idea. To redevelop a port in the south of his island country that had been hit hard by the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami. His government wanted to draw in seaborne trade from the busy shipping lanes to the south of his country. Sort of "do a Singapore". All western banks refused him a loan - told him the project was unviable and the Indians rejected his plea for loan funding for the same reason. That did not deter the Chinese:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/worl ... -port.html

In Beijing their foreign ministry must have been eyeing Sri Lanka for years beforehand. Part of their diplomatic analysis would have been from studies of the leadership; with the brief on looking for weaknesses, both political and personal. In the case of Rajapaksa they must have pinpointed his chief weakness as vanity combined with cluelessness about economics. When Rajapaksa turned to the PRC for funding of his pet port project they must have seen him and his country as a nice plump turkey presenting themselves to be plucked.
How many 'turkeys' can China afford though?

Apparently this port doesn't see 40 ships per year.

Post Reply