Ukraine - The price Europe must pay.

[neverfail]

Ukraine has already politically won the war and it will thus be a major political force in future European power balances

The only way “Old Europe” has to retain its clout is to stop its hesitations, decisively help Ukraine win its war quickly and then find a future settlement for Russia fitting into a new Eurasian balance. Without this, France and Germany could pay a long-term high price.

Francisco Sisci to Europe; especially to France and Germany = will you stop frigging about and get active.

[SteveFoerster]

I too hope that Russia and Belarus one day take their place amongst European nations, but for that to happen they must become democracies.

[neverfail]

I too hope that Russia and Belarus one day take their place amongst European nations, but for that to happen they must become democracies.

The Belarus dictator-president Alexander Lukashenko only rules as a client protégé propped up in power by Vladimir Putin. Were Putin to be removed from office as a consequence of (say) Russian losses in the Ukraine war then you can count on Lukashenko being rapidly swept aside.

There are enough dissidents in Belarus to ensure a swift passage to democracy.

Russia, I can sense, is much more problematic. It (unlike Belarus and Ukraine) clings to memories of past imperial glory.

[SteveFoerster]

I hope to see it, but I'm not holding my breath.

People have rightly pointed out that even if Putin is removed, there's no telling whether the next guy won't be even worse.

[neverfail]

I hope to see it, but I'm not holding my breath.

People have rightly pointed out that even if Putin is removed, there's no telling whether the next guy won't be even worse.

Exactly right Steve.

Luckily with both Ukraine and Belarrus both free and interested in joining NATO and the EU the latter will find itself with a nice thick "padding" of territory seperating the present-day EU from Russia.

Consider this too:

Provided that Ukraine wins the war and Belorus uses the opportunity to throw off thrawldom to Russia (as I anticipate) then Poland will become the leader of an informal bloc of fellow Slav nations with a combined population of just over 90 million. That is bigger than the populations of either France or Germany. It is bound to shift the internal geopolitics of the EU and NATO alike in an easterly direction.

Apart from forming a bloc to curb Russian ambition, why will this be benefical? The EU has been built around an accord signed by France's Charles de Gaulle and Germany's Konrad Adenauer in 1958.
https://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/count ... st%20enemy.
These two between them jointly governed the EU and it somewhat put fFrance in the driver's seat ahead of Germany (while the latter remained pre-eminant in economic importance). It was partly because Britain found itself marginalised within the EU by that working relationaship instead of being respected as a power of equal value by f these two but sidelined in EU internal deliberations that I believe helped fuel English discontent with the EU leading to Brexit.

The emergence of a Slavic bloc on Europe's eastern flank will represent the emergence of another node of power. Given Germany's centuries of interest in the region and the business opportunities that are bound to open up it will make the Elysee Accord somewhat antiquated and loosen France's "grip" on Germany.

The languages spoken in Poland, Ukraine and Belarus are like three regional dialects of the same Slavonic mother-tongue as is Russian. That such a bloc is likely to emerge is a given.

[neverfail]

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Folks, so very sorry but I forgot to post the link when I began this discussion.

https://asiatimes.com/2023/02/the-price ... raine-war/

p.s. Journalist Francisco Sisci does not take into account that Putin might as a last resort use thermonuclear weapons rather than concede defeat in Ukraine.