UK Elections

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Sertorio
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UK Elections

Post by Sertorio » Sun May 21, 2017 2:44 am

The most recent poll on the UK elections
UK 1.JPG
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Could there still be a surprise in the UK elections?...

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SteveFoerster
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Re: UK Elections

Post by SteveFoerster » Mon May 22, 2017 9:28 am

Sertorio wrote:
Sun May 21, 2017 2:44 am
Could there still be a surprise in the UK elections?...
Since Members of Parliament are chosen by districts rather than by specious national polls, no.
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neverfail
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Re: absurd UK system of voting.

Post by neverfail » Wed May 24, 2017 4:28 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Mon May 22, 2017 9:28 am
Sertorio wrote:
Sun May 21, 2017 2:44 am
Could there still be a surprise in the UK elections?...
Since Members of Parliament are chosen by districts rather than by specious national polls, no.
Yep. They have a first past the post system of voting over there. What that means is that the candidate for election in a particular electoral district can win with a minority of the ballots cast.

Imagine a constituency where up to a dozen candidates stand for election. Imagine if around 40% of eligible voters decide not to go to the polls that day due to (say) inclement weather. Only 60% bothered to vote. As long as none of the other 11 candidates for election got as many votes as he did, it means that the elected candidate could win with the support of as few as between 5% to 6% of all eligible voters in that electoral district. By anyone's standard 5% to 6% is minority endorsement of a man or woman destined to be that electoral district's member of Parliament for the next 5 years . :(

In summary, the MP elected need not reflect the consensus of opinion in his electoral district. Multiply that across the country and the end result can be that a very unrepresentative Parliament gets elected.

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Sertorio
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Re: UK Elections

Post by Sertorio » Sun May 28, 2017 4:15 am

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 59966.html

(...)

A series of polls have shown Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party closing the gap on the Prime Minister, who had a lead of 25 points when the election was called.

Labour is now six points behind in a poll conducted by the ORB for the Sunday Telegraph and has slashed the lead in half compared to the previous week.

In the poll Ms May’s Conservative party are on 44 per cent and Mr Corbyn’s Labour party on 38 per cent.

The 38 per cent score equals Labour's best rating since Mr Corbyn became leader and would see him comfortably outpoll Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown's election results if repeated on 8 June.

(...)
It will be very interesting to see the results on election day...

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Sertorio
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Re: UK Elections

Post by Sertorio » Mon May 29, 2017 7:49 am

Labour doubles poll lead lead over Conservatives among voters under 25
by Harriet Agerholm

Labour’s lead among voters under 50 is growing, marking an increasing generational divide ahead of June's election, according to a poll by YouGov.

The party is 57 points ahead of the Conservatives among voters under 25 years old, according to the poll, compared to 28 points shortly after the snap vote was called in April.

Across all the age groups, the survey for The Sunday Times showed Theresa May’s lead over Labour had fallen to seven points as she re-launched her election campaign.

While only 12 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds said they would vote Conservative, 69 per cent of them would opt to elect Jeremy Corbyn to Downing Street, the poll showed.

Meanwhile, 44 per cent of 25-to 49-year-olds favoured Labour, compared to 34 per cent who would vote Tory. Mr Corbyn's 10-point lead among this age group was up from eight points in the first days after the election was announced.

Yet only 57 per cent of people in each young age group said they were absolutely certain to vote, compared to 66 per cent of 50 to 64-year-olds and 75 per cent of over 60s.

Conservative sources have said they expect to fall behind Labour in polling before voters head to cast their ballots in June.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 61336.html
(...)

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Sertorio
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Re: UK Elections

Post by Sertorio » Wed May 31, 2017 4:45 pm

Labour is closing the gap with Tories and now stands just three points from Theresa May’s party, a new YouGov poll shows.

The poll, commissioned by The Times, found the Conservative lead has slipped dramatically in recent weeks and is now within the margin of error.

The figures show the Conservatives on 42 points but Labour are nipping at their heels on 39.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 66171.html

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SteveFoerster
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Re: UK Elections

Post by SteveFoerster » Wed May 31, 2017 5:13 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Wed May 31, 2017 4:45 pm
Labour is closing the gap with Tories and now stands just three points from Theresa May’s party, a new YouGov poll shows.

The poll, commissioned by The Times, found the Conservative lead has slipped dramatically in recent weeks and is now within the margin of error.

The figures show the Conservatives on 42 points but Labour are nipping at their heels on 39.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 66171.html
What matters are districts.

Ask Hillary Clinton.
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neverfail
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Re: UK Elections

Post by neverfail » Wed May 31, 2017 9:08 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Wed May 31, 2017 5:13 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Wed May 31, 2017 4:45 pm
Labour is closing the gap with Tories and now stands just three points from Theresa May’s party, a new YouGov poll shows.

The poll, commissioned by The Times, found the Conservative lead has slipped dramatically in recent weeks and is now within the margin of error.

The figures show the Conservatives on 42 points but Labour are nipping at their heels on 39.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 66171.html
What matters are districts.

Ask Hillary Clinton.
Right Steve!

The trend in voting preferences revealed by the polls indicate to me not Labour's growing popularity as I presently see this party as having not done a thing to restore credibility. I see it more as an indication that the voting public does not wish to give Teresa May a landslide victory so big as to embolden her to become another Maggie Thatcher type of PM.

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Doc
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Re: UK Elections

Post by Doc » Wed May 31, 2017 10:14 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Mon May 29, 2017 7:49 am
Labour doubles poll lead lead over Conservatives among voters under 25
by Harriet Agerholm

Labour’s lead among voters under 50 is growing, marking an increasing generational divide ahead of June's election, according to a poll by YouGov.

The party is 57 points ahead of the Conservatives among voters under 25 years old, according to the poll, compared to 28 points shortly after the snap vote was called in April.

Across all the age groups, the survey for The Sunday Times showed Theresa May’s lead over Labour had fallen to seven points as she re-launched her election campaign.

While only 12 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds said they would vote Conservative, 69 per cent of them would opt to elect Jeremy Corbyn to Downing Street, the poll showed.

Meanwhile, 44 per cent of 25-to 49-year-olds favoured Labour, compared to 34 per cent who would vote Tory. Mr Corbyn's 10-point lead among this age group was up from eight points in the first days after the election was announced.

Yet only 57 per cent of people in each young age group said they were absolutely certain to vote, compared to 66 per cent of 50 to 64-year-olds and 75 per cent of over 60s.

Conservative sources have said they expect to fall behind Labour in polling before voters head to cast their ballots in June.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 61336.html
(...)
A fool and his country are soon parted
The classes and the races to weak to master the new conditions of life must give way {..} They must perish in the revolutionary holocaust --Karl Marx

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Sertorio
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Re: UK Elections

Post by Sertorio » Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:38 am

I believe I was the only member of this forum who believed Jeremy Corbyn would do a lot better than most people expected. They may have forgotten that leftist values are well and alive in the world, and that lots of people have not given up on a socially minded state. Many people - and a majority of young people - want such policies and have voted for Labour in the UK. Socialism isn't dead yet and I don't think it will ever be.

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