Putin is overmatched and frightened

Discussion of current events
User avatar
Sertorio
Posts: 1267
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:12 am

Re: an historical precedent?

Post by Sertorio » Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:05 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:22 pm

Based upon that prehistoric precedent; I therefore wonder whether the Russian Federation will eventually have to sell off Siberia to the Chinese?
Why do people keep saying that Russia is bankrupt? Russia has a positive balance of trade, which means that it can keep going almost forever. Of course, if Putin wants Russians to become wealthier, then there must be some steady growth. Raw materials are not about to be exhausted, so Russia has a steady source of income. Agriculture is developping and Russia will become a major exporter of food. With some investment, Russia will become increasingly less dependent on foreign markets for much of its consumer goods. High tech is no problem for a country which has an advanced space industry, and state of the art military aircraft, missiles and electronics. While it would be nice to sell goods to the US and to Europe, Russia can survive selling to everybody else in the world. US control of the dollar can be an hindrance, but the dollar monopoly is about to finish. So, I tend to be pretty optimist as far as Russia is concerned.

User avatar
SteveFoerster
Posts: 1222
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:17 pm
Location: Northern Virginia, USA and Dominica, West Indies
Contact:

Re: an historical precedent?

Post by SteveFoerster » Sat Apr 21, 2018 6:33 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:05 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:22 pm

Based upon that prehistoric precedent; I therefore wonder whether the Russian Federation will eventually have to sell off Siberia to the Chinese?
Why do people keep saying that Russia is bankrupt? Russia has a positive balance of trade, which means that it can keep going almost forever.
Maybe people keep saying that because we understand that a country's balance of trade is only one of many economic indicators.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

neverfail
Posts: 1755
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: an historical precedent?

Post by neverfail » Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:37 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 6:33 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:05 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:22 pm

Based upon that prehistoric precedent; I therefore wonder whether the Russian Federation will eventually have to sell off Siberia to the Chinese?
Why do people keep saying that Russia is bankrupt? Russia has a positive balance of trade, which means that it can keep going almost forever.
Maybe people keep saying that because we understand that a country's balance of trade is only one of many economic indicators.
Yes Sertorio. A favorable capital account balance on the surface looks like a good thing: unfortunately there are many ways a country can run a positive trade balance and not all of them are pleasant.

Historically, New Zealand has run a deficit trade balance with Australia as it had for decades with all of its other external trading partners. In the late 1980's after both countries had recently floated their currencies, I was chatting to a New Zealand immigrant pal of mine on a social occasion. I mentioned the (then) recent surge of NZ exports to Australia to the point where the gap had virtually closed. I saw this as a cause for celebration. My Kiwi companion sadly disagreed with me on this point. He pointed out that "a lot of New Zealand manufacturers were staying in business only by exporting to Australia." We went on to point out that the mainstay NZ domestic market had become so moribund that spending on consumables had almost ceased. Selling to the Australia was not very lucrative for the manufacturers but still better than going bankrupt.

This raises the question: is Russia currently running a current account surplus because it has a lot of cost-competitive industries producing a range of goods of quality and price that (despite sanctions) attract eager international buyers OR (as I suspect) the trade imbalance is explained by a depressed domestic market for imported goods - something like New Zealand back in the late 1980's, only more so?
................................................................................................................

So much for Russia's current account but what is its CAPITAL account like? I am not aware of Russia being an attractive place for foreigners to invest capital but I am aware of the propensity of Russia's business oligarchs to spirit their money out of Russia into secretive bank accounts abroad.

User avatar
Sertorio
Posts: 1267
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:12 am

Re: an historical precedent?

Post by Sertorio » Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:18 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 6:33 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:05 pm
neverfail wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:22 pm

Based upon that prehistoric precedent; I therefore wonder whether the Russian Federation will eventually have to sell off Siberia to the Chinese?
Why do people keep saying that Russia is bankrupt? Russia has a positive balance of trade, which means that it can keep going almost forever.
Maybe people keep saying that because we understand that a country's balance of trade is only one of many economic indicators.
A positive balance of trade does not make a country rich, but it allows it to function without major problems. To increase people's wellbeing you need to grow, but Russia has all it needs to grow, even if only at a moderate rate. In spite of all economic sanctions, Russia has no major problems, although it may feel some discomfort. Having been made aware of the dangers of being too dependent on some foreign markets, Russia is doing what it can to become less vulnerable. In a couple of years there will be nothing the US can do to harm Russia.

User avatar
Sertorio
Posts: 1267
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:12 am

Re: an historical precedent?

Post by Sertorio » Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:32 am

neverfail wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:37 pm

This raises the question: is Russia currently running a current account surplus because it has a lot of cost-competitive industries producing a range of goods of quality and price that (despite sanctions) attract eager international buyers OR (as I suspect) the trade imbalance is explained by a depressed domestic market for imported goods - something like New Zealand back in the late 1980's, only more so?
................................................................................................................

So much for Russia's current account but what is its CAPITAL account like? I am not aware of Russia being an attractive place for foreigners to invest capital but I am aware of the propensity of Russia's business oligarchs to spirit their money out of Russia into secretive bank accounts abroad.
Russia makes money mostly on its oil and gas production. Also by selling good military hardware and, increasingly, by exporting grain and other agricultural products. That's not good enough, but will allow Russia to function as a sovereign country with its own strategic objectives. Once the essentials are guaranteed to the population at large, one can start diversifying. I would expect Russia to be able to produce most of the consumer and capital goods it needs, which will lead to a new flow of exports. Russia has all it needs to grow and to offer good conditions to its people, and no sanctions by the US and the EU will prevent that. This further industrialization of Russia will allow for some of the capital to stay in Russia, and it may even attract some foreign investment, although not from the US. Hopefully Europe will realize what a perfect match there would be between Europe's and Russia's interests, and decide to invest in Russia. But first Europe must get rid of that colossal albatros, which is the US...

neverfail
Posts: 1755
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2016 3:47 am

Re: an historical precedent?

Post by neverfail » Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:08 am

Sertorio wrote:
Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:32 am


Russia makes money mostly on its oil and gas production. Also by selling good military hardware and, increasingly, by exporting grain and other agricultural products. That's not good enough, but will allow Russia to function as a sovereign country with its own strategic objectives. Once the essentials are guaranteed to the population at large, one can start diversifying. I would expect Russia to be able to produce most of the consumer and capital goods it needs, which will lead to a new flow of exports. Russia has all it needs to grow and to offer good conditions to its people, and no sanctions by the US and the EU will prevent that. This further industrialization of Russia will allow for some of the capital to stay in Russia, and it may even attract some foreign investment, although not from the US. Hopefully Europe will realize what a perfect match there would be between Europe's and Russia's interests, and decide to invest in Russia. But first Europe must get rid of that colossal albatros, which is the US...
A pipe dream, Sertorio.

User avatar
Sertorio
Posts: 1267
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:12 am

Re: an historical precedent?

Post by Sertorio » Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:47 am

neverfail wrote:
Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:08 am
Sertorio wrote:
Sun Apr 22, 2018 4:32 am


Russia makes money mostly on its oil and gas production. Also by selling good military hardware and, increasingly, by exporting grain and other agricultural products. That's not good enough, but will allow Russia to function as a sovereign country with its own strategic objectives. Once the essentials are guaranteed to the population at large, one can start diversifying. I would expect Russia to be able to produce most of the consumer and capital goods it needs, which will lead to a new flow of exports. Russia has all it needs to grow and to offer good conditions to its people, and no sanctions by the US and the EU will prevent that. This further industrialization of Russia will allow for some of the capital to stay in Russia, and it may even attract some foreign investment, although not from the US. Hopefully Europe will realize what a perfect match there would be between Europe's and Russia's interests, and decide to invest in Russia. But first Europe must get rid of that colossal albatros, which is the US...
A pipe dream, Sertorio.
Why?...

User avatar
Alexis
Posts: 183
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2016 2:46 pm

Putin's garage

Post by Alexis » Fri May 18, 2018 7:22 pm

Image

User avatar
Sertorio
Posts: 1267
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2016 3:12 am

Re: Putin's garage

Post by Sertorio » Sat May 19, 2018 2:21 am

Alexis wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 7:22 pm
Image
If we were talking about Trump's garage, for pleasure, instead of a bear we would have a waterboarding chair... :twisted:

User avatar
SteveFoerster
Posts: 1222
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2016 7:17 pm
Location: Northern Virginia, USA and Dominica, West Indies
Contact:

Re: Putin's garage

Post by SteveFoerster » Sat May 19, 2018 9:09 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat May 19, 2018 2:21 am
Alexis wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 7:22 pm
Image
If we were talking about Trump's garage, for pleasure, instead of a bear we would have a waterboarding chair... :twisted:
You can praise the Putin regime, or make that joke. Pick one.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

Post Reply