Putin is overmatched and frightened

Discussion of current events
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lzzrdgrrl
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Re: Putin is overmatched and frightened

Post by lzzrdgrrl » Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:48 pm

Seems the biggest investment Russia has in Syria is face. What they do about it may cost us more than that, and I'm thinking that Putin could just say, "okay...... you don't like what we're doing in Syria? Fine..... Syria is your problem to deal with and we'll speak with the World Council and shill hard for the stipulation that indemnity for the removal of Assad, and any consequent refugee problem from this point on, is entirely in your hands. Good luck with that".......'>.......
I have a certain notoriety among the lesser gods........

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Alexis
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Putin is overmatched and frightened... and SAD!!!

Post by Alexis » Fri Apr 20, 2018 4:10 am

Image

Yes, he's sad.

The picture shows... therefore it must be true, right?

Right? :)

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dagbay
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Re: Putin is overmatched and frightened

Post by dagbay » Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:43 am

IMHO Russia is not doing so well. That might be an understatement. Russian exports have plunged over the last 4 years and the downtrend continues especially in the critical Military technology market where Russia saw a 6% decline in spite of the weakening Ruble. It's major clients are not buying much these days due to the weak oil market and economic downturn.
My personal impression is that Russia touts it's hardware much more than it has performance shows in fact.

With all the genius that some attribute to Putin, I thing his intervention in Syria shows he underestimated the quagmire and while it still serves his purposes, it is taxing on Russia economically and established precedents he will regret in Russia proper.
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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Sertorio
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Re: Putin is overmatched and frightened

Post by Sertorio » Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:51 am

dagbay wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:43 am
IMHO Russia is not doing so well. That might be an understatement. Russian exports have plunged over the last 4 years and the downtrend continues especially in the critical Military technology market where Russia saw a 6% decline in spite of the weakening Ruble. It's major clients are not buying much these days due to the weak oil market and economic downturn.
My personal impression is that Russia touts it's hardware much more than it has performance shows in fact.

With all the genius that some attribute to Putin, I thing his intervention in Syria shows he underestimated the quagmire and while it still serves his purposes, it is taxing on Russia economically and established precedents he will regret in Russia proper.
Statistics to back all this up, please...

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dagbay
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Re: Putin is overmatched and frightened

Post by dagbay » Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:21 am

Sertorio wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:51 am
dagbay wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:43 am
IMHO Russia is not doing so well. That might be an understatement. Russian exports have plunged over the last 4 years and the downtrend continues especially in the critical Military technology market where Russia saw a 6% decline in spite of the weakening Ruble. It's major clients are not buying much these days due to the weak oil market and economic downturn.
My personal impression is that Russia touts it's hardware much more than it has performance shows in fact.

With all the genius that some attribute to Putin, I thing his intervention in Syria shows he underestimated the quagmire and while it still serves his purposes, it is taxing on Russia economically and established precedents he will regret in Russia proper.
Statistics to back all this up, please...
https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/fil ... 2017_0.pdf
More to come....
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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Sertorio
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Re: Putin is overmatched and frightened

Post by Sertorio » Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:52 am

dagbay wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:21 am
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:51 am
dagbay wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:43 am
IMHO Russia is not doing so well. That might be an understatement. Russian exports have plunged over the last 4 years and the downtrend continues especially in the critical Military technology market where Russia saw a 6% decline in spite of the weakening Ruble. It's major clients are not buying much these days due to the weak oil market and economic downturn.
My personal impression is that Russia touts it's hardware much more than it has performance shows in fact.

With all the genius that some attribute to Putin, I thing his intervention in Syria shows he underestimated the quagmire and while it still serves his purposes, it is taxing on Russia economically and established precedents he will regret in Russia proper.
Statistics to back all this up, please...
https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/fil ... 2017_0.pdf
More to come....
Thank you.

Arms exports are important but do not determine the level of economic success of a country. For the last period concerned, Germany saw its arms exports decrease 14%, about twice as much as the decrease in arms exports by Russia. And Russia doesn't have the power to impose its weapons on allies to the extent the US has shown. The US threatens Turkey with boycotting the sale of F-35's if Turkey goes ahead with the purchase of the Russian S-400. Russia cannot blackmail its clients, it has to rely on quality alone. Of course, US attempt at blackmailing Turkey may actually create new opportunities for Russia. It could offer Turkey its SU-57 to substitute for the F-35...

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SteveFoerster
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Re: Putin is overmatched and frightened

Post by SteveFoerster » Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:25 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:52 am
Arms exports are important but do not determine the level of economic success of a country. For the last period concerned, Germany saw its arms exports decrease 14%, about twice as much as the decrease in arms exports by Russia.
The difference is that arms aren't Germany's number two export. For Russia, arms are number two, behind oil and gas.
Sertorio wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:52 am
And Russia doesn't have the power to impose its weapons on allies to the extent the US has shown. The US threatens Turkey with boycotting the sale of F-35's if Turkey goes ahead with the purchase of the Russian S-400. Russia cannot blackmail its clients, it has to rely on quality alone. Of course, US attempt at blackmailing Turkey may actually create new opportunities for Russia. It could offer Turkey its SU-57 to substitute for the F-35...
Except that the reason the U.S. can do that is that its planes are better. Put another way, Russia relies more on price and a willingness to sell to anyone than it does on high quality. That's not to say all Russia's planes are crap, but they're no match for the F-35.
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dagbay
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Re: Putin is overmatched and frightened

Post by dagbay » Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:31 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:52 am
dagbay wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:21 am
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:51 am
dagbay wrote:
Fri Apr 20, 2018 6:43 am
IMHO Russia is not doing so well. That might be an understatement. Russian exports have plunged over the last 4 years and the downtrend continues especially in the critical Military technology market where Russia saw a 6% decline in spite of the weakening Ruble. It's major clients are not buying much these days due to the weak oil market and economic downturn.
My personal impression is that Russia touts it's hardware much more than it has performance shows in fact.

With all the genius that some attribute to Putin, I thing his intervention in Syria shows he underestimated the quagmire and while it still serves his purposes, it is taxing on Russia economically and established precedents he will regret in Russia proper.
Statistics to back all this up, please...
https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/fil ... 2017_0.pdf
More to come....
Thank you.

Arms exports are important but do not determine the level of economic success of a country. For the last period concerned, Germany saw its arms exports decrease 14%, about twice as much as the decrease in arms exports by Russia. And Russia doesn't have the power to impose its weapons on allies to the extent the US has shown. The US threatens Turkey with boycotting the sale of F-35's if Turkey goes ahead with the purchase of the Russian S-400. Russia cannot blackmail its clients, it has to rely on quality alone. Of course, US attempt at blackmailing Turkey may actually create new opportunities for Russia. It could offer Turkey its SU-57 to substitute for the F-35...
Sertorio, in as much as you admire Russia and Putin you must remember that quality allows one company to squeeze out another. With the option to buy either the tendency is to buy the proven better quality product. For good or bad the US offers proven quality and if Erdugan wants to buy Russian hardware that his choice to make. All that is besides the point. Russia is in a tough economic period and it is not prospering on civil exports either. Labor cost in Russia is about a third of the US in the technology sector and in spite of that business is not booming. Oil is becoming a low cost low margin commodity with the US now de facto the largest supplier and gas from the ME undercuts Russian sales to Europe it's main client.

As for Germany's decline, the root cause in the military hardware arena is that the country is basically a one trick pony - it produces good submarines. It appeals to countries of modest needs since the competition from the US and Russia is on giant vessels that are nuclear powered and ment to deter more than fight. The German clientele is limited and therefore it sees a wild variation in its economic part of the defense market.
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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Sertorio
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Re: Putin is overmatched and frightened

Post by Sertorio » Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:46 pm

dagbay wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:31 pm
...you must remember that quality allows one company to squeeze out another. With the option to buy either the tendency is to buy the proven better quality product...
That being so, we may assume that Turkey thinks that the S-400 is better than the Patriot. But then, the US tries to prevent Turkey making the logical choice by threatening not to sell the F-35 to Turkey if it goes ahead and buys the S-400... This is no longer "quality allowing one company to squeeze out another". It's bullying and blackmailing your customer... No wonder Russia may have some difficulty selling its weapons...

neverfail
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Re: an historical precedent?

Post by neverfail » Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:22 pm

Hey, here is a thought that just occurred to me.

Back in 1857 the Russian Tsar sold Alaska to the United States. It seems that the cost of the Crimea War had bankrupted their treasury and the Russian Empire was poised on the brink of fiscal collapse.

By contrast, the United States in the 1850's must have been flush with cash and could well afford to buy Alaska from them. Apart from the long-term effects of the late 1840's California gold rush, the USA in that 1850's decade was enjoying a booming export trade in cotton, wheat and lumber; not to mention the biggest railroad construction boom in the World.

The influx of American gold from the sale gave the Russian Empire (along with Tsarist autocracy) a renewed lease of life. In a way that was a pity. The collapse of Tsarism into a different sort of upheaval there and then might have averted the Bolshevik revolution that began in 1917 8-) .

Based upon that prehistoric precedent; I therefore wonder whether the Russian Federation will eventually have to sell off Siberia to the Chinese?

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