Trump is no dangerous udiot.

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Sertorio
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Re: Trump is no dangerous udiot.

Post by Sertorio » Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:07 pm

Don't be naive. It weren't Trump's crude threats which led Kim to the negotiating table. It was the real danger of Chinese sanctions cutting North Korea's life lines. China, not the US, did it. Because China does not want a major war on its southern border. At least not yet.

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Doc
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Re: Trump is no dangerous udiot.

Post by Doc » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:27 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:07 pm
Don't be naive. It weren't Trump's crude threats which led Kim to the negotiating table. It was the real danger of Chinese sanctions cutting North Korea's life lines. China, not the US, did it. Because China does not want a major war on its southern border. At least not yet.
Exactly!!! Trump is like a crazy man Best to walk softly around him :D
“The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it.” … George Orwell


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cassowary
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Re: Trump is no dangerous udiot.

Post by cassowary » Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:27 am

Sertorio wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:07 pm
Don't be naive. It weren't Trump's crude threats which led Kim to the negotiating table. It was the real danger of Chinese sanctions cutting North Korea's life lines. China, not the US, did it. Because China does not want a major war on its southern border. At least not yet.
Trump appears to be accomplishing more than his predecessors.

neverfail
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Re: don't rush to judgement yet.

Post by neverfail » Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:40 am

cassowary wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:27 am
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:07 pm
Don't be naive. It weren't Trump's crude threats which led Kim to the negotiating table. It was the real danger of Chinese sanctions cutting North Korea's life lines. China, not the US, did it. Because China does not want a major war on its southern border. At least not yet.
Trump appears to be accomplishing more than his predecessors.
Still early days yet Cass. We still do not know how his more high profile initiatives (e.g. his meeting with KIm) are going to work out in the long run. I will concede however that with Obama, Bush and Clinton as his immediate predecessors in office; Trump does not need to achieve much in the way of foreign policy successes in order to put all three to shame.

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Sertorio
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Re: don't rush to judgement yet.

Post by Sertorio » Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:31 am

neverfail wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:40 am
cassowary wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:27 am
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:07 pm
Don't be naive. It weren't Trump's crude threats which led Kim to the negotiating table. It was the real danger of Chinese sanctions cutting North Korea's life lines. China, not the US, did it. Because China does not want a major war on its southern border. At least not yet.
Trump appears to be accomplishing more than his predecessors.
Still early days yet Cass. We still do not know how his more high profile initiatives (e.g. his meeting with KIm) are going to work out in the long run. I will concede however that with Obama, Bush and Clinton as his immediate predecessors in office; Trump does not need to achieve much in the way of foreign policy successes in order to put all three to shame.
Trump meeting Kim is an unmitigated defeat for the US:

1. It legitimizes Kim.
2. Even if denuclearization of Korea is achieved, the US will lose, because the price to be paid must include US troops leaving South Korea.
3. It will losen China's siege by US forces.
4. It may encourage Japan talking to China and getting rid of US troops.

Trump is doing it because he must have realized that the US cannot afford much longer the expense of an imperial posture in Asia. The US empire has started the same road that led to the demise of the Byzantine empire. None too soon...

Jim the Moron
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Re: don't rush to judgement yet.

Post by Jim the Moron » Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:13 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:31 am
neverfail wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:40 am
cassowary wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:27 am
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:07 pm
Don't be naive. It weren't Trump's crude threats which led Kim to the negotiating table. It was the real danger of Chinese sanctions cutting North Korea's life lines. China, not the US, did it. Because China does not want a major war on its southern border. At least not yet.
Trump appears to be accomplishing more than his predecessors.
Still early days yet Cass. We still do not know how his more high profile initiatives (e.g. his meeting with KIm) are going to work out in the long run. I will concede however that with Obama, Bush and Clinton as his immediate predecessors in office; Trump does not need to achieve much in the way of foreign policy successes in order to put all three to shame.
Trump meeting Kim is an unmitigated defeat for the US:

1. It legitimizes Kim.
2. Even if denuclearization of Korea is achieved, the US will lose, because the price to be paid must include US troops leaving South Korea.
3. It will losen China's siege by US forces.
4. It may encourage Japan talking to China and getting rid of US troops.

Trump is doing it because he must have realized that the US cannot afford much longer the expense of an imperial posture in Asia. The US empire has started the same road that led to the demise of the Byzantine empire. None too soon...
Well, Sertorio, I suppose that there are folks who believe the US is laying siege on China with US forces in East Asia. For my part, if I was going to lay siege on China, I would deploy a heck of a lot more than 100,000 or so troops to the region. And even that wouldn't work.

"It legitimizes Kim." - Meeting with Trump legitimizes no one.

". . . unmitigated defeat for the US." - Removing US troops from South Korea and Japan would be an unmitigated victory for American taxpayers.

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Alexis
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Rationales, morons and muzzle

Post by Alexis » Thu Apr 05, 2018 6:53 am

Agree that Trump is no idjot. No moron could have grown his inherited fortune from millions to billions.

About "dangerous"... well, let's see what happens next.

Regarding the planned Trump-Kim meeting:
1. Rationales for KJU to accept South Korean proposal for a meeting may be several:
- Rembering that CIA's Pompeo said last January that NK had not yet succeeded on puting nuclear weapon on an ICBM but was a few months from being there, winning time may be a rationale. The present period, when Pyongyang can already shoot nukes on South Korea and Japan but not yet on the US proper, is particularly dangerous for NK, what with some US politicians arguing for war saying that only South Koreans and Japanese will suffer from reprisal
- Also, given dependence on trade with China, it's in Kim's interest to appear like the sensible one, the one who wants peace - then if talks fail and US pressure resumes, he can tell Beijing it's not his fault

2. Official NK language on denuclearization hasn't changed since the former Kims. They have always agreed to denuclearize... under condition that perceived threat to their country would be removed. Follows a list of conditions that no US president has been willing to contemplate, including end of nuclear protection for South Korea and removal of all US troops in the peninsula. Could Trump agree? I don't know, but if does, he will need to replace Pompeo and Bolton pretty soon :)

3. Trump is no moron, but some of his picks for top government jobs are. Case in point: Bolton. If he uses Bolton as an attack dog, so as to try scaring Kim into more concessions, that's a valid tactic. But he may also be under influence of such types... which one is influencing the other, here? :|

4. US objectives are ambiguous, and Trump is partly responsible for that. He has occasionally stated that Pyongyang with nuclear-tipped ICBMs "wouldn't happen on his watch" - a sensible objective, within a negotiation framework where Washington also would make concessions. However, most of the time, total "denuclearization" is defined as the only possible objective. That doesn't make any sense, because total denuclearization would mean NK at the mercy of further US pressures - remember Libya's Kadhafi - therefore NK is sure to refuse it. Kim would need to be utterly stupid to agree, and he's probably no moron either.

neverfail wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:40 am
I will concede however that with Obama, Bush and Clinton as his immediate predecessors in office; Trump does not need to achieve much in the way of foreign policy successes in order to put all three to shame.
One thing is sure: each of those three presidents has been far from inactive:
- Clinton set in motion extension of NATO throughout Europe and bombed Serbia to separate Kosovo from it - Putin leading Russia is arguably a consequence
- Bush invaded Iraq - US being bogged down in the Middle East and apparition of ISIL are arguably consequences
- Obama negotiated the Iran non-nuclearization agreement - Saudi Arabia and Israel pressuring Trump to drop the agreement and attack Iran instead is arguably a consequence

Geopolitical provocation, invasion and extended war, anti-nuclear proliferation agreement - call them successes or failures as you will, anyway they are actions to be sure.

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 3:31 am
TThe US empire has started the same road that led to the demise of the Byzantine empire. None too soon...
Why would you want Washington to be conquered, adult males systematically killed, adult females distributed as war booty and children raised as members of the conquering power? That was the "demise" of the Byzantine empire for you, Constantinople 1453.

Incidentally, where are the Turks in your comparison?

Jim the Moron wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 5:13 am
"It legitimizes Kim." - Meeting with Trump legitimizes no one.
That's a good line :lol:

However, is it serious? :)

". . . unmitigated defeat for the US." - Removing US troops from South Korea and Japan would be an unmitigated victory for American taxpayers.
Indeed. There is a potential path for a Trump-Kim summit that would be an unmitigated victory for both of them.

It's just that puting Pompeo in that picture, not to speak of Bolton, is a bit problematic. I have to hope that Trump is really in charge, and that he got the muzzle ready for Bolton :| ...

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SteveFoerster
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Re: Trump is no dangerous udiot.

Post by SteveFoerster » Thu Apr 05, 2018 7:32 am

cassowary wrote:
Thu Apr 05, 2018 12:27 am
Sertorio wrote:
Wed Apr 04, 2018 5:07 pm
Don't be naive. It weren't Trump's crude threats which led Kim to the negotiating table. It was the real danger of Chinese sanctions cutting North Korea's life lines. China, not the US, did it. Because China does not want a major war on its southern border. At least not yet.
Trump appears to be accomplishing more than his predecessors.
That's hardly a surprise when Obama was deliberately stymied for six years by Congressional Republicans. As I've remarked many times, the president is not an emperor, and to a surprisingly large extent what happens during his administration is not up to him.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
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