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SteveFoerster
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Re: Frequent error... there is no country named "Europe" :-)

Post by SteveFoerster » Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:14 am

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:12 am
Russia maybe overdependent on natural resources, but it has a positive balance of trade, which means that it can satisfy its people's demand with the value of what it produces.
Sertorian economics strikes again... no, that's not what that means.
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:12 am
A country rich on resources and with a highly educated people only needs time - and investment - to become a highly developed country. There is no reason to think that US sanctions will be able to stop that. In some cases they may slow it down a bit, in other cases they will speed up Russia's development.
Putin has been in power for nearly twenty years now. Sanctions don't help, but Russia's development is and will continue to be stymied by political centralisation, corruption, oligarchy, the long term decrease in importance of petroleum, and demographic decline.
Hopefully by then Europe will have understood that Russia is its best and most promising partner.
Russia isn't a promising partner for anyone other than dictators like Assad who need help holding onto power.
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Sertorio
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Re: Frequent error... there is no country named "Europe" :-)

Post by Sertorio » Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:53 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:14 am
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:12 am
Russia maybe overdependent on natural resources, but it has a positive balance of trade, which means that it can satisfy its people's demand with the value of what it produces.
Sertorian economics strikes again... no, that's not what that means.
That's exactly what it means, or prove otherwise.

In the absence of import controls, a country with a trade surplus, or with balanced foreign trade, can cover the aggregate demand of its people with the value of what it produces. Any increase in aggregate demand due to an increase in disposable income will then have to be satisfied by an equivalent increase in the aggregate product. The question is whether Russia will do it by an increase in industrial and agricultural product, or by an increase in the production in natural resources, like oil and gas. To become a developed country Russia will have to increase the value of manufactured goods and agricultural products a lot more than the value of oil and gas. We will have to wait and see what happens. But I have little doubt that Russia will be able to increase the value of consumer and capital goods produced at home. There may be a relative shortage of entrepeneurial spirit and management skills, but those things can be learned.

neverfail
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Re: Frequent error... there is no country named "Europe" :-)

Post by neverfail » Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:01 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:12 am
A country rich on resources and with a highly educated people only needs time - and investment - to become a highly developed country. There is no reason to think that US sanctions will be able to stop that. In some cases they may slow it down a bit, in other cases they will speed up Russia's development.
SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:14 am
Putin has been in power for nearly twenty years now. Sanctions don't help, but Russia's development is and will continue to be stymied by political centralisation, corruption, oligarchy, the long term decrease in importance of petroleum, and demographic decline
The missing factor that you fail to take into account, Sertorio, is good government. I doubt whether Russia has ever enjoyed one moment of that over its entire history.

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Sertorio
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Re: Frequent error... there is no country named "Europe" :-)

Post by Sertorio » Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:37 am

neverfail wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:01 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:12 am
A country rich on resources and with a highly educated people only needs time - and investment - to become a highly developed country. There is no reason to think that US sanctions will be able to stop that. In some cases they may slow it down a bit, in other cases they will speed up Russia's development.
SteveFoerster wrote:
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:14 am
Putin has been in power for nearly twenty years now. Sanctions don't help, but Russia's development is and will continue to be stymied by political centralisation, corruption, oligarchy, the long term decrease in importance of petroleum, and demographic decline
The missing factor that you fail to take into account, Sertorio, is good government. I doubt whether Russia has ever enjoyed one moment of that over its entire history.
Good government and democratic government are two different things. One can have an efficient government without democracy, and you can have democracy without good government. My guess is that Russia will grow and develop even with a deffective democracy. Authoritarian governments can be very efficient, even if unpleasant.

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