Polar Silk Road

Discussion of current events
Jim the Moron
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Polar Silk Road

Post by Jim the Moron » Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:23 pm

Canada as "the next big Asian power"

http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/opinion/a ... sian-power

". . . the Northwest Passage as an international strait . . ."

neverfail
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Re: The great Canada bypass sea route?

Post by neverfail » Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:29 am

Whilst the thinning ice in the Arctic Sea may make the sea to the north of Canada a desirable alternative sea route to Europe to the vaunted "northern silk route' along Russia's Arctic coast: I fail to understand what resources Canada has along its bleak and apparently useless Arctic coast that would be on any interest to the Chinese.

The author's boosterism advocating that Canada could be the next big Asian power reads like fantasy.

Jim the Moron
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Re: Polar Silk Road

Post by Jim the Moron » Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:51 am

"Canada's Northwest Territories holds as much as 200 billion barrels of shale oil reserves . . ."

http://www.mining.com/canadas-territori ... ken-field/

And Nunavut has significant fossil fuel reserves, also.

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Milo
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Re: Polar Silk Road

Post by Milo » Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:51 am

Jim the Moron wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:51 am
"Canada's Northwest Territories holds as much as 200 billion barrels of shale oil reserves . . ."

http://www.mining.com/canadas-territori ... ken-field/

And Nunavut has significant fossil fuel reserves, also.
The pushback from environmental and aboriginal groups here would be horrendous.

And more pragmatic types, like this guy, are saying, 'maybe the best thing to do with most oil reserves is leave them in the ground until the price goes up'.

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SteveFoerster
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Re: Polar Silk Road

Post by SteveFoerster » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:49 pm

Milo wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:51 am
Jim the Moron wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:51 am
"Canada's Northwest Territories holds as much as 200 billion barrels of shale oil reserves . . ."

http://www.mining.com/canadas-territori ... ken-field/

And Nunavut has significant fossil fuel reserves, also.
The pushback from environmental and aboriginal groups here would be horrendous.
That didn't stop the development of the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta.
Milo wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:51 am
And more pragmatic types, like this guy, are saying, 'maybe the best thing to do with most oil reserves is leave them in the ground until the price goes up'.
But yeah, there's that.
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neverfail
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Re: Polar Silk Road

Post by neverfail » Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:20 pm

Milo wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:51 am
Jim the Moron wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 4:51 am
"Canada's Northwest Territories holds as much as 200 billion barrels of shale oil reserves . . ."

http://www.mining.com/canadas-territori ... ken-field/

And Nunavut has significant fossil fuel reserves, also.
The pushback from environmental and aboriginal groups here would be horrendous.

And more pragmatic types, like this guy, are saying, 'maybe the best thing to do with most oil reserves is leave them in the ground until the price goes up'.
Well put, Milo.

The fact that it has not so far been developed commercially implies to me that in such a remote location and at current oil prices, exploiting this reserve would be sub-economic.

The legendary Bakkar field in South Dakota is located on the threshold of the world's biggest market for crude petroleum in addition to being close to already developed support and delivery infrastructure. These factors would have helped make Bakkar commercially viable. But the Canol and Bluefish reserves have neither of these advantages so it stands to reason that costs would correspondingly be much higher.

Yes, just because the reserves are there in the ground does not automatically make them a gold mine for immediate exploitation. Location counts for a lot.

neverfail
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Re: beware of boom and bust.

Post by neverfail » Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:30 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:49 pm

That didn't stop the development of the Athabasca tar sands in Alberta.

Yeah! Developed at a time of high oil prices and boomtime euphoria among developers.

Look at what has happened since the global oil price drop:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cana ... SKBN1CN0FD

Athabasca was/is a marginal resource only profitable as long as oil prices remained reasonably high. It's current depressed state is a warning about going over the moon about the premature development of other, similarly marginal, resources.

So much for the prospect of Chinese oil tankers putting into yet to be developed ports along Canada's Arctic coastline to load up with shale oil any time soon.

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Milo
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Re: Polar Silk Road

Post by Milo » Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:15 pm

It would be a very different political reality to develop arctic hydrocarbons from the old Alberta days.

For one thing, the Territories include substantial Indian Reservations and disputed lands. Under our law, Indian lands have special privileges compared to anyone else, save the Crown itself. To develop lands that are either Indian or disputed, an extensive consultation process would be required.

Although the Reservations are poor, I can tell you that the cause celeb of every guilty, privileged law school graduate is to represent a Reservation in a law suit, similarly, every spoiled kid with a BA seems to dream of aboriginal activism. I would predict a lot of credible resistance.

Further to Neverfail's point, I sense a certain agenda with all of this talk of building massive infrastructure to extract and ship hydrocarbons, in Canada and elsewhere.

I have actually heard some say in Canadian media that if we don't build all this stuff, we will permanently lose market share, as if this is fine wine, not some gunk that is completely undifferentiated by personal service or ambience.

Seems to me that the only people who would want these massive investments are those who consume the hydrocarbons; China in particular stands out as a candidate.

I don't even ascribe complete cynicism to our political leaders here, I just think that they live in a bubble, a bubble that is encouraged more and more by the Chinese government.

In terms of the Chinese economic offensive, this is not just a dictatorship thing, it's also Chinese business practice (not Singapore Cass, I know better); my brother in law did a lot of business in China, providing highly valued services, he spent a lot of effort dodging high class prostitutes and extremely tempting nights out; coupled with grueling, endless negotiations.

But bottom line, I think Canada can hold on to its interests against this offensive as long as anyone. Hopefully long enough that China will change its government structure substantially so that it's much less of a threat.

neverfail
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Re: Polar Silk Road

Post by neverfail » Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:25 pm

Milo wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:15 pm
It would be a very different political reality to develop arctic hydrocarbons from the old Alberta days.

For one thing, the Territories include substantial Indian Reservations and disputed lands. Under our law, Indian lands have special privileges compared to anyone else, save the Crown itself. To develop lands that are either Indian or disputed, an extensive consultation process would be required.

Although the Reservations are poor, I can tell you that the cause celeb of every guilty, privileged law school graduate is to represent a Reservation in a law suit, similarly, every spoiled kid with a BA seems to dream of aboriginal activism. I would predict a lot of credible resistance.
Milo: the key phrase is under our law.

Since your Canadian parliament had the authority to grant them those priveleges, presumably it also has the powers to take them away again.
Milo wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:15 pm
Further to Neverfail's point, I sense a certain agenda with all of this talk of building massive infrastructure to extract and ship hydrocarbons, in Canada and elsewhere.

I have actually heard some say in Canadian media that if we don't build all this stuff, we will permanently lose market share, as if this is fine wine, not some gunk that is completely undifferentiated by personal service or ambience.

Seems to me that the only people who would want these massive investments are those who consume the hydrocarbons; China in particular stands out as a candidate.

I don't even ascribe complete cynicism to our political leaders here, I just think that they live in a bubble, a bubble that is encouraged more and more by the Chinese government.

In terms of the Chinese economic offensive, this is not just a dictatorship thing, it's also Chinese business practice (not Singapore Cass, I know better); my brother in law did a lot of business in China, providing highly valued services, he spent a lot of effort dodging high class prostitutes and extremely tempting nights out; coupled with grueling, endless negotiations.

But bottom line, I think Canada can hold on to its interests against this offensive as long as anyone. Hopefully long enough that China will change its government structure substantially so that it's much less of a threat.
Yes, the Peoples Republic is always a tough customer to do business with. They prove for weaknesses in the stance of foreign barbarians (like us) seeking unfair advantage all of then time. However take a tip from someone in a country that has had far more exposure to Chinese ways than Canada so far has. Once you command their respect you find the going a lot easier. The rewards for so doing can be huge.

Your brother in law is right Milo. When dealing with the PRC, do not ever show them weaknesses they can exploit. They probably will not love you for it; but they will respect you a lot more. In that part of the world respect is everything.

I have confidence that Canada can find its way. :D

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Milo
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Re: Polar Silk Road

Post by Milo » Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:59 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:25 pm
Milo wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:15 pm
It would be a very different political reality to develop arctic hydrocarbons from the old Alberta days.

For one thing, the Territories include substantial Indian Reservations and disputed lands. Under our law, Indian lands have special privileges compared to anyone else, save the Crown itself. To develop lands that are either Indian or disputed, an extensive consultation process would be required.

Although the Reservations are poor, I can tell you that the cause celeb of every guilty, privileged law school graduate is to represent a Reservation in a law suit, similarly, every spoiled kid with a BA seems to dream of aboriginal activism. I would predict a lot of credible resistance.
Milo: the key phrase is under our law.

Since your Canadian parliament had the authority to grant them those priveleges, presumably it also has the powers to take them away again.
Milo wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:15 pm
Further to Neverfail's point, I sense a certain agenda with all of this talk of building massive infrastructure to extract and ship hydrocarbons, in Canada and elsewhere.

I have actually heard some say in Canadian media that if we don't build all this stuff, we will permanently lose market share, as if this is fine wine, not some gunk that is completely undifferentiated by personal service or ambience.

Seems to me that the only people who would want these massive investments are those who consume the hydrocarbons; China in particular stands out as a candidate.

I don't even ascribe complete cynicism to our political leaders here, I just think that they live in a bubble, a bubble that is encouraged more and more by the Chinese government.

In terms of the Chinese economic offensive, this is not just a dictatorship thing, it's also Chinese business practice (not Singapore Cass, I know better); my brother in law did a lot of business in China, providing highly valued services, he spent a lot of effort dodging high class prostitutes and extremely tempting nights out; coupled with grueling, endless negotiations.

But bottom line, I think Canada can hold on to its interests against this offensive as long as anyone. Hopefully long enough that China will change its government structure substantially so that it's much less of a threat.
Yes, the Peoples Republic is always a tough customer to do business with. They prove for weaknesses in the stance of foreign barbarians (like us) seeking unfair advantage all of then time. However take a tip from someone in a country that has had far more exposure to Chinese ways than Canada so far has. Once you command their respect you find the going a lot easier. The rewards for so doing can be huge.

Your brother in law is right Milo. When dealing with the PRC, do not ever show them weaknesses they can exploit. They probably will not love you for it; but they will respect you a lot more. In that part of the world respect is everything.

I have confidence that Canada can find its way. :D
Actually the privileges attached to reservation land are mostly thanks to the courts interpreting our constitution. In the time honoured tradition of political expediency, Parliament keeps dropping that hot potato.

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