Trump has Putin over a barrel (of oil)

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neverfail
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Re: About Putin

Post by neverfail » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:33 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:55 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:00 am
cassowary wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:17 pm

Why is it that the Baltics are doing well, while Russia is not? Both were part of the USSR. Is there something missing in the Russian cultural infrastructure?
Russia is doing much, much better than the USSR ever did. Having inherited a totally nationalized and centraly planned economy, Russia has done amazingly well in building a competitive economy, even if still too dependent on natural resources. You may be sure that in the coming decades Russia's economy will become more diversified and prosperous, based on its natural wealth and great science and technology. And sanctions against Russia will give a great contribute to that success... :D
You didn't answer the question.
Yes Sertorio; the relevant question was "why are the Baltics doing better?" Bear in mind that the Baltic states have nothing like Russia's landmass and stock of natural resources.

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Sertorio
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Re: About Putin

Post by Sertorio » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:12 am

neverfail wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:33 pm

Yes Sertorio; the relevant question was "why are the Baltics doing better?" Bear in mind that the Baltic states have nothing like Russia's landmass and stock of natural resources.
Russia was for centuries a backward country dependent on agriculture and serf labour, while the Baltic states were much more open societies, involved in the Baltic trade. It doesn't surprise me that the Baltic states were capable of modernizing very quickly their economies. But seen the early backwardness of Russia's economy and the inefficiency of the central planned model chosen by the USSR, I think that Russia's recent performance is more impressive than that of the Baltic states.

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Sertorio
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Re: About Putin

Post by Sertorio » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:19 am

neverfail wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:31 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:03 am
neverfail wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:13 am
(Marshall Plan aid, do not forget, came in the form of soft loans that had to be repaid by the recipients - not in the form of cash grants or gifts)
Speaking from memory, I believe those "loans" were never meant to be repaid. And the interest charged was only sufficient to cover the expenses of running the Marshall Plan. But I may be wrong...

[From Wikipedia: The proportion of Marshall Plan loans versus Marshall Plan grants was roughly 15% to 85% for both the UK and France.]
Considering that the USA ended the Second World war with a national debt equal to around 120% of GDP and must have been teetering on insolvency itself; I would humbly suggest that it was in no position in the years that followed to hand out money as grants like that hand over fist, Sertorio.
The US national debt was placed exclusively in the internal market, while the UK's was to a large extent an external debt. That makes all the difference. In the US debt was a liability to the government, but an asset to everybody who had purchased war bonds, so it didn't affect the economy nor prevented the US from offering grants to the European countries under the Marshall Plan.

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cassowary
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Re: About Putin

Post by cassowary » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:19 am

neverfail wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:33 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:55 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:00 am
cassowary wrote:
Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:17 pm

Why is it that the Baltics are doing well, while Russia is not? Both were part of the USSR. Is there something missing in the Russian cultural infrastructure?
Russia is doing much, much better than the USSR ever did. Having inherited a totally nationalized and centraly planned economy, Russia has done amazingly well in building a competitive economy, even if still too dependent on natural resources. You may be sure that in the coming decades Russia's economy will become more diversified and prosperous, based on its natural wealth and great science and technology. And sanctions against Russia will give a great contribute to that success... :D
You didn't answer the question.
Yes Sertorio; the relevant question was "why are the Baltics doing better?" Bear in mind that the Baltic states have nothing like Russia's landmass and stock of natural resources.
..............................................................GDP growth rate
.................................................. 2017...............2016............... 2015
Russia...........................................1.8%................-0.2%..............-2.8%
Lithuania.......................................3.5%.................2.3%................1.8%
Estonia..........................................4.0%................2.1%.................1.7%
Latvia............................................3.8%...............2%....................2.7%

There. I have taken the trouble to get the statistics. So why are the Baltics doing better than Russia?

I would like to offer an explanation. There are three reasons I can think of:

1)Fall in oil price
2)Embargo by the EU and US.
3)Wasteful spending in their military ventures to make the Russians feel good that they are still an important power.

No. 2 is caused by No. 3. So their imperialistic urge could be the cultural deficit that is causing their economic underperformance. Having a peaceful culture is an asset that brings prosperity.
Last edited by cassowary on Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:28 am, edited 3 times in total.

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Sertorio
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Re: About Putin

Post by Sertorio » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:22 am

cassowary wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:19 am

..............................................................GDP growth rate
.................................................. 2017...............2016............... 2015
Russia...........................................1.8%................-0.2%..............-2.8%
Lithuania.......................................3.5%.................2.3%................1.8%
Estonia..........................................4.0%................2.1%.................1.7%
Latvia............................................3.8%...............2%....................2.7%

There. I have taken the trouble to get the statistics. So why are the Baltics doing better than Russia?
You didn't take into account that the greater the economy, the smaller - usually - the rate of growth. But having said that, I recognize that the Baltic states performance is better than Russia's.

neverfail
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Re: About Putin

Post by neverfail » Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:45 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:19 am


The US national debt was placed exclusively in the internal market, while the UK's was to a large extent an external debt. That makes all the difference. In the US debt was a liability to the government, but an asset to everybody who had purchased war bonds, so it didn't affect the economy nor prevented the US from offering grants to the European countries under the Marshall Plan.

Your first point well made Sertorio. But bear in mind that US governments still had to keep faith with their creditors including war bondholders. So the need to pay down that "internal" debt would have acted as a constraint as to how much they could afford to throw around externally.

Another factor was that wartime allies owed the USA plenty. The two biggest recipients of lend-lease aid were Britain and the USSR. The latter promptly defaulted on its lend-lease debt whilst the former struggled to maintain fiscal solvency whilst still meeting repayment obligations to its creditors. Those repayments may well have provided the US with the additional credit worthiness to extend Marshall Plan aid to former enemies and allies alike.

The means for America to provide that aid may well have come out of the depressed post-WW2 living standards of the British public.

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Sertorio
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Re: About Putin

Post by Sertorio » Sat Feb 10, 2018 1:23 pm

neverfail wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:45 pm

Another factor was that wartime allies owed the USA plenty. The two biggest recipients of lend-lease aid were Britain and the USSR. The latter promptly defaulted on its lend-lease debt whilst the former struggled to maintain fiscal solvency whilst still meeting repayment obligations to its creditors. Those repayments may well have provided the US with the additional credit worthiness to extend Marshall Plan aid to former enemies and allies alike.
Good point. I had never thought of that...

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SteveFoerster
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Re: About Putin

Post by SteveFoerster » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:50 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:22 am
cassowary wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:19 am

..............................................................GDP growth rate
.................................................. 2017...............2016............... 2015
Russia...........................................1.8%................-0.2%..............-2.8%
Lithuania.......................................3.5%.................2.3%................1.8%
Estonia..........................................4.0%................2.1%.................1.7%
Latvia............................................3.8%...............2%....................2.7%

There. I have taken the trouble to get the statistics. So why are the Baltics doing better than Russia?
You didn't take into account that the greater the economy, the smaller - usually - the rate of growth. But having said that, I recognize that the Baltic states performance is better than Russia's.
Except that it's actually the more developed the economy, the smaller - usually - the rate of growth. That's more reason the Russians should be outpacing the Baltic states, not less reason.
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cassowary
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Re: Trump has Putin over a barrel (of oil)

Post by cassowary » Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:17 am

Sertorio keeps getting things wrong. I have a theory why.

The uinderlying problem is his faith in Socialism. This has poisoned his whole worldview. He has been a life long Socialist/Communist. So during the Cold War, he was rooting for the Soviet Union to win, like so many leftists. Yes, they may dislike their totalitarianism. But for the left, the ultimate good is the triumph of Socialism. So totalitarian government is a small price to pay.

Then it follows that the US must be the evil one, for it stood in the way of the Soviet Union, the vanguard in the struggle for workers' rights. Even after the fall of the Berlin Wall, nothing changed - the US remains their devil. So those who opposed the US must be the good guys. Russia, after the Cold War, still retains a special place in their hearts. Not only is Russia, the successor of their beloved Soviet Union, it still opposes the US, the bad guy.

So Russia is a force for good for the leftist. This is despite all evidence to the contrary. They twist themselves into pretzels that are laughable. The US oppresses the Europeans when most Europeans want the US to protect them against Russia.

Sertorio, of course, refuses to see this. If it is true that the US is the good guy protecting the Europeans from Russia and its predecessor the USSR, then Socialism cannot be something good. This is deeply troubling for him.

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Sertorio
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Re: Trump has Putin over a barrel (of oil)

Post by Sertorio » Sun Feb 11, 2018 10:09 am

cassowary wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 8:17 am
Sertorio keeps getting things wrong. I have a theory why.

The uinderlying problem is his faith in Socialism. This has poisoned his whole worldview. He has been a life long Socialist/Communist. So during the Cold War, he was rooting for the Soviet Union to win, like so many leftists. Yes, they may dislike their totalitarianism. But for the left, the ultimate good is the triumph of Socialism. So totalitarian government is a small price to pay.

Then it follows that the US must be the evil one, for it stood in the way of the Soviet Union, the vanguard in the struggle for workers' rights. Even after the fall of the Berlin Wall, nothing changed - the US remains their devil. So those who opposed the US must be the good guys. Russia, after the Cold War, still retains a special place in their hearts. Not only is Russia, the successor of their beloved Soviet Union, it still opposes the US, the bad guy.

So Russia is a force for good for the leftist. This is despite all evidence to the contrary. They twist themselves into pretzels that are laughable. The US oppresses the Europeans when most Europeans want the US to protect them against Russia.

Sertorio, of course, refuses to see this. If it is true that the US is the good guy protecting the Europeans from Russia and its predecessor the USSR, then Socialism cannot be something good. This is deeply troubling for him.
You should be writing scripts for Holywood, such is your imagination...

If you weren't completely blinded by your worship of the strong against the weak, you would realize that the US is nothing more than a predatory power, whose only argument is brute power and the capability to destroy all those which oppose their greed. The cult of violence permeates the whole American society, notwithstanding the fact that a significant minority of Americans oppose that violence as strongly as I do. Occasionaly the US fights the real bad guys, as it happened in the war against the nazis, but that's the exception. And the sad truth is that the US administrations increasingly ressemble the nazis they fought against. Force, brute force, killing and torture are the tools of American policy, both at home and abroad, as we have seen in Vietnam, in Iraq, and now see in the Middle East and in Korea.

Only Russia and China can stop the destructive influence of the US in our present world, so let's hope they will succeed before the US destroys half of the world.

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