No matter what one thinks of Spanish government's actions, the fact is that people of Catalonia have very mixed opinions. Polls traditionnally found 40 to 50% for independence - the 90% result of Oct 1st vote if it is true would be explained by small participation of 42% as opponents did not want to vote and give legitimacy to an illegal vote.
The % for independence is smaller when the question is "Catalonia's independence outside of the EU". Which is the only practical option, something that many Catalans may have been unaware of, but is becoming clearer. Now, the only difference between independence inside and outside of the EU is economic. Which strongly suggests that a big part of independence supporters are not very deeply convinced: mere economic drawbacks could stop them. And such are coming in spades.
One does not fight when one has maximum 50% of the region's population, including a whole lot whose separatist convictions are quite shallow.
No war will be necessary to keep Catalonia within Spain. Separatists are neither numerous enough, nor above all convinced enough to put their lives on the line for a violent revolution.
If a small number of them were, well Spain has resisted decades to the ETA terrorist nationalist organization in Basque country, which killed more than 800 people. They resisted until they saw the end of it.
The very fact that Spain has demonstrated to be able to face terrorists and defend their country and their Constitution strongly diminishes the risk that a few violent ideologues among separatists would cross the line.
David Goldman ("Spengler") generally understands rather poorly Europeans. In this case, his contempt for Spaniards is totally unwarranted.cassowary wrote: ↑Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:51 amThe Bells of Barcelona toll for Europe... by Spengler (Remember him?)
They (the Catalans) are tired of subsidizing the backward money-sinks of Spain’s southern provinces ; they are hard-working and productive, and want to separate from the economically irreparable parts of Spain (the bums).
Here is King Felipe VI's solemn message on Tuesday 3rd, including English subtitles:
In constitutional monarchies such as Spain, the king is basically the solemn mouthpiece of the government. No power of his own, but a symbolic capacity to stress the most important messages. This is Felipe VI's first such pronouncement since his coronation in 2014.
Spain and its Constitution will be defended.