neverfail wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:07 amhttp://www.theage.com.au/world/cataloni ... yvhc3.html
Spain cannot afford to lose Catalonia.
When all else fails, send in the armed forces.
You think it can't happen, do you? Well, watch this space.
The ultimate victim of Catalonia's attempted secession is likely to be Spanish democracy.
Catalan separatists will fail, that's virtually guaranteed.
All the Spanish government has to do to win the day is to simply continue to insist relentlessly on applying the law, all of the law, nothing but the law
, beginning with the Constitution, like any government is supposed to. Unsurprisingly, that's what they are doing.
That will ensure that any attempt at applying a possible declaration of independence is blocked. Demonstrations and strikes by independentists are probable, however all that they will ensure is continuous deterioration of economic condition of the Catalan province
- which has already begun with many banks and companies deciding or contemplating moving outside of Catalonia. The Spanish government can afford that - albeit they probably would prefer it did not take place - but the separatists can't: this will discourage part of the independists and bolster their adversaries - pro-Spain demonstrations in Catalonia are becoming more frequent.
At the same time, it's becoming clearer that separatists have no ally abroad whatsover
- except for Venezuela's Maduro, maybe
Other European countries have made it clear that if Catalonia separates from Spain illegally, moreover after a vote that was a charade of a referendum very far from any standard for democracy, they will be by that very fact outside of the EU. This, while a lot of independentists however were counting on possibility to remain in the EU.
From the point of view of political strategy, separatists are in a hopeless position.
After the troubles are over, new regional elections will probably be organized. Expect independentists to be a minority in the new parliament.