Venezuela, The Revolution Begins

Discussion of current events
neverfail
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Re: "Conditional" democracy in Latin America.

Post by neverfail » Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:34 pm

cassowary wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:50 am
neverfail wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2017 4:19 am

(off on another tangent) The only reason I can see why civil war as so far not broken out is because political opposition has so far been led by politicians representing the interests of the oligarchy: the privileged elite of pre-Chavez times who, of course, want their old power, privileges and confiscated assets back. Such a minority grouping would probably be content to send others to their deaths for the purpose but would not normally put their own lives on the line to achieve such a regression.

In other words; restoration of the comfortable old status quo ante is not worth their dying for.
The problem is that the people are hungry. So they got nothing to lose. In such a chaotic situation, it may not be the old oligarchy that is leading the charge. It is more like an explosion from the people themselves. A new leader, not afraid to die, may emerge from this chaos.
So far no such "new leader" has emerged Cass. If he is doing so now then it has escaped my attention.

By chance I saw an article on Venezuela on one of our news and current affairs shows just last night. It seems that the opposition there is weakened by the fact that it comprises disparate groups with no common agenda and no acknowledged leadership. Despite the seething discontent of the populace at large, there is still nothing to galvanize that body of misery into decisive action. So Maduro still rules by default of his opponents.

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Sertorio
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Re: "Conditional" democracy in Latin America.

Post by Sertorio » Sat Aug 05, 2017 3:00 am

neverfail wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:34 pm
cassowary wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:50 am
neverfail wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2017 4:19 am

(off on another tangent) The only reason I can see why civil war as so far not broken out is because political opposition has so far been led by politicians representing the interests of the oligarchy: the privileged elite of pre-Chavez times who, of course, want their old power, privileges and confiscated assets back. Such a minority grouping would probably be content to send others to their deaths for the purpose but would not normally put their own lives on the line to achieve such a regression.

In other words; restoration of the comfortable old status quo ante is not worth their dying for.
The problem is that the people are hungry. So they got nothing to lose. In such a chaotic situation, it may not be the old oligarchy that is leading the charge. It is more like an explosion from the people themselves. A new leader, not afraid to die, may emerge from this chaos.
So far no such "new leader" has emerged Cass. If he is doing so now then it has escaped my attention.

By chance I saw an article on Venezuela on one of our news and current affairs shows just last night. It seems that the opposition there is weakened by the fact that it comprises disparate groups with no common agenda and no acknowledged leadership. Despite the seething discontent of the populace at large, there is still nothing to galvanize that body of misery into decisive action. So Maduro still rules by default of his opponents.
The opposition in Venezuela is mostly higher middle class, and thus they cannot stay on the streets forever. Just as it happened in Chile, this higher middle class would need the military in order to defeat the government, and they do not have that support. The typical South American general belonging to the oligarchy no longer exists in Venezuela, so the opposition would need a true calamity to have any chances of coming to power. Expect the opposition to soon leave the streets...

Opposition
Image

Maduro supporters
Image

Do you see the difference?...

neverfail
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Re: Venezuela, The Revolution Begins

Post by neverfail » Sat Aug 05, 2017 4:41 am

Nice photos sertorio, but what do they prove?

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Sertorio
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Re: Venezuela, The Revolution Begins

Post by Sertorio » Sat Aug 05, 2017 7:31 am

neverfail wrote:
Sat Aug 05, 2017 4:41 am
Nice photos sertorio, but what do they prove?
They prove that there is a strong aspect of class struggle in Venezuela. The "haves" are the opposition, the "have nots" support Maduro. And since the "haves" are a lot less than the "have nots", Maduro will stay in power as long as he has the support of the armed forces. Anything some people may say - like cassowary - is pure wishful thinking.

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Doc
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Re: Venezuela, The Revolution Begins

Post by Doc » Sat Aug 05, 2017 1:38 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Aug 05, 2017 7:31 am
neverfail wrote:
Sat Aug 05, 2017 4:41 am
Nice photos sertorio, but what do they prove?
They prove that there is a strong aspect of class struggle in Venezuela. The "haves" are the opposition, the "have nots" support Maduro. And since the "haves" are a lot less than the "have nots", Maduro will stay in power as long as he has the support of the armed forces. Anything some people may say - like cassowary - is pure wishful thinking.
Seems like the only people that "have" anything are Maduro supporters.
“The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it.” … George Orwell

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SteveFoerster
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Re: Venezuela, The Revolution Begins

Post by SteveFoerster » Sat Aug 05, 2017 1:41 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Aug 05, 2017 7:31 am
neverfail wrote:
Sat Aug 05, 2017 4:41 am
Nice photos sertorio, but what do they prove?
They prove that there is a strong aspect of class struggle in Venezuela. The "haves" are the opposition, the "have nots" support Maduro. And since the "haves" are a lot less than the "have nots", Maduro will stay in power as long as he has the support of the armed forces. Anything some people may say - like cassowary - is pure wishful thinking.
The only thing unsourced photos prove is what your position is, nothing more. There was definitely an element of class struggle against Chavez in the early years of the "revolution", because sophisticated people knew that disaster was the inevitable outcome. But most Venezuelans of means have long since emigrated, it's mainly the working class left to struggle and starve under socialism now... and that means they're the ones in the streets.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

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Sertorio
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Re: Venezuela, The Revolution Begins

Post by Sertorio » Sat Aug 05, 2017 3:16 pm

SteveFoerster wrote:
Sat Aug 05, 2017 1:41 pm
There was definitely an element of class struggle against Chavez in the early years of the "revolution", because sophisticated people knew that disaster was the inevitable outcome. But most Venezuelans of means have long since emigrated, it's mainly the working class left to struggle and starve under socialism now... and that means they're the ones in the streets.
You would have a hard time trying to prove that...

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Doc
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Re: Venezuela, The Revolution Begins

Post by Doc » Sat Aug 05, 2017 4:50 pm

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/ ... 5-12-27-40
Venezuela constitutional assembly removes chief prosecutor

By JORGE RUEDA and JOSHUA GOODMAN

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- A newly installed constitutional assembly ousted Venezuela's defiant chief prosecutor Saturday, a sign that President Nicolas Maduro's embattled government intends to move swiftly against critics and consolidate power amid a fast-moving political crisis.

Cries of "traitor" and "justice" erupted from the stately, neo-classical salon were 545 pro-government delegates voted unanimously to remove Luisa Ortega from her post as the nation's top law enforcement official and replace her with a staunch government supporter.

They said they were acting in response to a ruling by the government-stacked Supreme Court, which banned Ortega from leaving the country and freezing her bank accounts while it weighs criminal charges against her for alleged irregularities.

Ortega, a longtime loyalist who broke with the socialist government in April, refused to recognize the decision and vowed to continue defending the rights of Venezuelans from Maduro's "coup" against the constitution "with my last breath."

"This is just a tiny example of what's coming for everyone that dares to oppose this totalitarian form of government," Ortega said in the statement she signed as chief prosecutor. "If they're doing this to the chief prosecutor, imagine the helpless state all Venezuelans live in."

Earlier Saturday, Ortega was pushed and barred from entering her office by dozens of national guardsmen in riot gear who took control of the entrance to the building.

She alleged that authorities were desperate to get their hands on dossiers containing information on dirty dealings by high-level officials, including sensitive details about millions of dollars in bribes paid by Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht.

Assembly delegates later swore in as her replacement Ombudsman Tarek William Saab, who was recently sanctioned by the Trump administration for failing to protect protesters from abuses in his role as the nation's top human rights official.

Members of the all-powerful constitutional assembly had pledged in their first meeting to move quickly against Maduro's opponents and didn't disappoint.

Not the opponents of the people Not the opponents of Venezuela But the opponents of Maduro.
“The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it.” … George Orwell

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SteveFoerster
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Re: Venezuela, The Revolution Begins

Post by SteveFoerster » Sat Aug 05, 2017 10:33 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Aug 05, 2017 3:16 pm
SteveFoerster wrote:
Sat Aug 05, 2017 1:41 pm
There was definitely an element of class struggle against Chavez in the early years of the "revolution", because sophisticated people knew that disaster was the inevitable outcome. But most Venezuelans of means have long since emigrated, it's mainly the working class left to struggle and starve under socialism now... and that means they're the ones in the streets.
You would have a hard time trying to prove that...
The change in election results (not counting the recent fraudulent sham "election") prove that.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

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cassowary
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Venezuela crushed armed revolt

Post by cassowary » Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:02 am

neverfail wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2017 6:34 pm
cassowary wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:50 am
neverfail wrote:
Fri Aug 04, 2017 4:19 am

(off on another tangent) The only reason I can see why civil war as so far not broken out is because political opposition has so far been led by politicians representing the interests of the oligarchy: the privileged elite of pre-Chavez times who, of course, want their old power, privileges and confiscated assets back. Such a minority grouping would probably be content to send others to their deaths for the purpose but would not normally put their own lives on the line to achieve such a regression.

In other words; restoration of the comfortable old status quo ante is not worth their dying for.
The problem is that the people are hungry. So they got nothing to lose. In such a chaotic situation, it may not be the old oligarchy that is leading the charge. It is more like an explosion from the people themselves. A new leader, not afraid to die, may emerge from this chaos.
So far no such "new leader" has emerged Cass. If he is doing so now then it has escaped my attention.

By chance I saw an article on Venezuela on one of our news and current affairs shows just last night. It seems that the opposition there is weakened by the fact that it comprises disparate groups with no common agenda and no acknowledged leadership. Despite the seething discontent of the populace at large, there is still nothing to galvanize that body of misery into decisive action. So Maduro still rules by default of his opponents.
Maduro crushed military rebellion

Maduro escaped this time. But he may not escape forever. An unknown leader may emerge and win power. A great temptation for Maduro is to ask for Cuban troops. Then his regime will be seen as a puppet regime for a foreign occupier.

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