The Syria War

Discussion of current events
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Sertorio
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Re: The Syria War

Post by Sertorio » Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:09 am

dagbay wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:24 am
I'm with Steve's prognosis.
BTW Assad may have taken back territories from various factions BUT most of his gains are under heavy bombing of Russian or US Air forces that basically mowed down the cities where millions used to live. The rubble left behind these bombings will not constitute any viable country let alone a reunification Syria. It's the humpty dumpy of the ME.
You guys continue taking your wishes for reality. Most Syrians realize that Syria is the only secular mostly Muslim country in the ME, and they are proud of it. And they realize that with all his shortcomings Bashar al-Assad is the only Syrian leader capable of preserving the secular nature of Syria. They may impose on him a more democratic system, but they will not throw him out. And yes, they will rebuild their country and make it prosperous.

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dagbay
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Re: The Syria War

Post by dagbay » Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:11 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:09 am
dagbay wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:24 am
I'm with Steve's prognosis.
BTW Assad may have taken back territories from various factions BUT most of his gains are under heavy bombing of Russian or US Air forces that basically mowed down the cities where millions used to live. The rubble left behind these bombings will not constitute any viable country let alone a reunification Syria. It's the humpty dumpy of the ME.
You guys continue taking your wishes for reality. Most Syrians realize that Syria is the only secular mostly Muslim country in the ME, and they are proud of it. And they realize that with all his shortcomings Bashar al-Assad is the only Syrian leader capable of preserving the secular nature of Syria. They may impose on him a more democratic system, but they will not throw him out. And yes, they will rebuild their country and make it prosperous.
Perhaps you know something that we do not. For the sake of the Sunnies of Syria I hope you are wrong. Assad will not leave them in Syria if he has the upper hand. They will be forced out - probably into Europe. He knows rthat any substantial Sunni minority will uprise to fight him again as soon as they can.
If I was a betting man - I would wager on a future of perpetual conflicts with some rest periods and Assad or his successor holding to about 20% of Syria.
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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Sertorio
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Re: The Syria War

Post by Sertorio » Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:19 am

dagbay wrote:
Sun Sep 17, 2017 7:11 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:09 am
dagbay wrote:
Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:24 am
I'm with Steve's prognosis.
BTW Assad may have taken back territories from various factions BUT most of his gains are under heavy bombing of Russian or US Air forces that basically mowed down the cities where millions used to live. The rubble left behind these bombings will not constitute any viable country let alone a reunification Syria. It's the humpty dumpy of the ME.
You guys continue taking your wishes for reality. Most Syrians realize that Syria is the only secular mostly Muslim country in the ME, and they are proud of it. And they realize that with all his shortcomings Bashar al-Assad is the only Syrian leader capable of preserving the secular nature of Syria. They may impose on him a more democratic system, but they will not throw him out. And yes, they will rebuild their country and make it prosperous.
Perhaps you know something that we do not. For the sake of the Sunnies of Syria I hope you are wrong. Assad will not leave them in Syria if he has the upper hand. They will be forced out - probably into Europe. He knows rthat any substantial Sunni minority will uprise to fight him again as soon as they can.
If I was a betting man - I would wager on a future of perpetual conflicts with some rest periods and Assad or his successor holding to about 20% of Syria.
Or perhaps you think you know something we do not...
Islam in Syria is followed by 75% of the country's total population: Sunnis make up 74% of the total, mostly of Arab, Kurdish and Turkoman ethnicities. Shias make up the remaining 13%: Alawites are the predominant Shia group, followed by Twelvers and Ismailis. Sunnis are mainly of the Shafi'i madhhab with pockets of Hanafi and Hanbali. Several large Sufi orders are active in the country, including the Naqshbandi tariqa, and Qadiriyya. Although not traditionally considered as Muslims, the Druze make up 3% of the total population.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Syria
So Bashar al-Assad is going to expel 74% of the Syrian Muslim population (55% of the total population)...Do you actually believe thet?...

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dagbay
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Re: The Syria War

Post by dagbay » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:18 am

Sertorio wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 2:19 am
Or perhaps you think you know something we do not...
Islam in Syria is followed by 75% of the country's total population: Sunnis make up 74% of the total, mostly of Arab, Kurdish and Turkoman ethnicities. Shias make up the remaining 13%: Alawites are the predominant Shia group, followed by Twelvers and Ismailis. Sunnis are mainly of the Shafi'i madhhab with pockets of Hanafi and Hanbali. Several large Sufi orders are active in the country, including the Naqshbandi tariqa, and Qadiriyya. Although not traditionally considered as Muslims, the Druze make up 3% of the total population.that is more than 55% of the pre- war population of Syria by far.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islam_in_Syria
So Bashar al-Assad is going to expel 74% of the Syrian Muslim population (55% of the total population)...Do you actually believe thet?...
The data is correct for the beginning of the Arab Spring. Since then millions migrated to Euroba their new home. And an estimated 10 to 1 millions are displaced many of then crossed the boarder to Jordan. Assad with his allies Iran and Russia with a little help from Hizbulla were able to take over some streatch of land in "Syria" but mostly these have been turned into ghost towns of rubble by the intense air campaign. The Kurds in the north are establishing their autonomy holding local elections in spite of Assad on Sept 22,days before the Kurds of Iraq decide on their independence. The only part of Syria that was left intact is the shore area with dominant Allawite Allawite popular and Russian bases with a narrow corridor to Damascus.

Furthermore, the Sushi war in Syria had an economical cause as well. Assad Jr did not handle the common period of drought that preceeded the war properly. He allowed the mostly agrarian economy to collapse. Russia will not do a Marshal Plan in Syria while it's own economy is struggling.
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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Sertorio
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Re: The Syria War

Post by Sertorio » Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:58 am

Ethnic Groups in Syria

Image

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dagbay
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Re: The Syria War

Post by dagbay » Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:44 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:58 am
Ethnic Groups in Syria

Image
You should have included the title from Wikipedia "Ethno-religious makeup of Syria, 1976. Map from Joseph Holliday"
7 years of civil war have changed and dispersed the 18.6 million population. At least 10 millions are displaced millions in Europe and their place was taken by Iranians and a mess of people from all over the Muslim world as guns for hire.
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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Sertorio
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Re: The Syria War

Post by Sertorio » Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:10 pm

dagbay wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:44 pm

You should have included the title from Wikipedia "Ethno-religious makeup of Syria, 1976. Map from Joseph Holliday"
7 years of civil war have changed and dispersed the 18.6 million population. At least 10 millions are displaced millions in Europe and their place was taken by Iranians and a mess of people from all over the Muslim world as guns for hire.
The map may be a bit outdated, but whatever the movements of population, it is very doubtful that the tail will have wagged the dog...As you seem to believe...

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dagbay
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Re: The Syria War

Post by dagbay » Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:57 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:10 pm
dagbay wrote:
Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:44 pm

You should have included the title from Wikipedia "Ethno-religious makeup of Syria, 1976. Map from Joseph Holliday"
7 years of civil war have changed and dispersed the 18.6 million population. At least 10 millions are displaced millions in Europe and their place was taken by Iranians and a mess of people from all over the Muslim world as guns for hire.
The map may be a bit outdated, but whatever the movements of population, it is very doubtful that the tail will have wagged the dog...As you seem to believe...
There is no tail it is in Euroba. The legs will be allied with (Hopefully a new Kurdish nation) the body is dispersed in Jordan and all over the rest of the world never to return as their homes,towns,businesses and history was reduced to rubble. Some parts are there in Syria but most of the former Syria is gutted gone never to return. That is how I read the situation. One more thing - in expecting a unified Syria under Assad there is a implied assumption that the Su d hi war is nearing it's end. This expectation os in line with the MSM reporting but not this is not correlated to reality at least for now.
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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dagbay
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Re: The Syria War

Post by dagbay » Thu Sep 28, 2017 10:45 pm

Don't believe the false narrative of diminished hostilities in Syria. There seems to be a media blackout going on. The war if raging in full force with heavy losses to Bashar and his allies, the Russians and Hizbulla. Russia has lost its highest ranking general in aSyria while Abu Baker El Baghdadi "Rose from the dead" and taped a new call for ISIS fighters worldwide.Is it possible that he has 9 lives or were we lied to about his death
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

Jim the Moron
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Re: The Syria War

Post by Jim the Moron » Sun Jan 21, 2018 8:47 pm

"Turkish forces push into Syria, battle Kurdish militia"
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/wo ... ia-9881266

Well, why not? After all, almost everyone else has invaded Syria, so why not the Turks?

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