The Syria War

Discussion of current events
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dagbay
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Re: The Syria War

Post by dagbay » Tue Jan 30, 2018 7:22 am

Sertorio wrote:
Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:14 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Mon Jan 29, 2018 7:48 am
Sertorio wrote:
Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:32 am
Jim the Moron wrote:
Sun Jan 28, 2018 4:59 pm
Palaver in Sochi

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinio ... 08397.html

Worthwhile analysis. If you would prefer not to read the entire article, the last two paragraphs sum things up nicely.
A bit one sided, to say the least...

The fact is that the armed opposition to Bashar al-Assad is about to be defeated, and therefore cannot impose its views on any political settlement. Having lost, they must be happy with whatever is offered to them. Which is a relative democratization of the Syrian regime, with relatively free elections. Bashar al-Assad will very probably retain power, but in a less absolute manner. The opposition will win enough seats in Parliament to give it a chance to a future electoral victory. Minorities will be better protected and a relatively free economy will give most people the chance to a proper living standard. That's more than most ME countries have now. So, why not?...
You're right that the opposition can't win. But unfortunately, everything after that is a fantasy scenario.
I think it is a very likely scenario...
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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dagbay
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Re: The Syria War

Post by dagbay » Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:50 am

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UKTVc7otF6o
The USA is adding it's direct firepower to the demolition of Syria. Sporadic targeting is also allegedly done by Israel. Now that Turkey is also shelling and long standing Iran, Assad and Russian TNT, Chlorine and other flammables also supplied thanks to SA and other Gulf states - thatpice of realestate is getting hotter than its population can handle.
Expect another migration wave into western Europe which is turning into another Islamic region right before our eyes.
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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Sertorio
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Re: The Syria War

Post by Sertorio » Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:45 am

dagbay wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:50 am
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UKTVc7otF6o
The USA is adding it's direct firepower to the demolition of Syria. Sporadic targeting is also allegedly done by Israel. Now that Turkey is also shelling and long standing Iran, Assad and Russian TNT, Chlorine and other flammables also supplied thanks to SA and other Gulf states - thatpice of realestate is getting hotter than its population can handle.
Expect another migration wave into western Europe which is turning into another Islamic region right before our eyes.
Maybe not. With the help of Russia and Iran, Syria is slowly squeezing out all anti-government fighting factions, whether terrorist or not. The help the US, Israel, Turkey and Saudi are giving to some of those factions will slow the process down, but in the end they will all have to leave Syria. Which will be easier if Syria and Iraq decide to tackle this problem together. Seen the influence Iran has on Iraq, I would imagine that to be a real possibility.

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dagbay
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Re: The Syria War

Post by dagbay » Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:27 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:45 am
dagbay wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:50 am
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UKTVc7otF6o
The USA is adding it's direct firepower to the demolition of Syria. Sporadic targeting is also allegedly done by Israel. Now that Turkey is also shelling and long standing Iran, Assad and Russian TNT, Chlorine and other flammables also supplied thanks to SA and other Gulf states - thatpice of realestate is getting hotter than its population can handle.
Expect another migration wave into western Europe which is turning into another Islamic region right before our eyes.
Maybe not. With the help of Russia and Iran, Syria is slowly squeezing out all anti-government fighting factions, whether terrorist or not. The help the US, Israel, Turkey and Saudi are giving to some of those factions will slow the process down, but in the end they will all have to leave Syria. Which will be easier if Syria and Iraq decide to tackle this problem together. Seen the influence Iran has on Iraq, I would imagine that to be a real possibility.
I do not share your prophetic vision for a positive ending for Bashar and what was formerly known as Syria as I've already posted. The damage is so extensive that it might only serve as a land bridge for Iran and a base for Putin. As for Iran's stabilization of Iraq - it has happened at the steep cost of ethnic cleansing of the Sunni minority some of which has come to visit you in Europe. It is strange that this is a goal you seem to favor for Syria which pre-arab spring held a majority of Sunni Arabs.
I'd rather be diving or flying alas for now I am on terra firma.

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Sertorio
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Re: The Syria War

Post by Sertorio » Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:56 pm

dagbay wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:27 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:45 am
dagbay wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:50 am
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UKTVc7otF6o
The USA is adding it's direct firepower to the demolition of Syria. Sporadic targeting is also allegedly done by Israel. Now that Turkey is also shelling and long standing Iran, Assad and Russian TNT, Chlorine and other flammables also supplied thanks to SA and other Gulf states - thatpice of realestate is getting hotter than its population can handle.
Expect another migration wave into western Europe which is turning into another Islamic region right before our eyes.
Maybe not. With the help of Russia and Iran, Syria is slowly squeezing out all anti-government fighting factions, whether terrorist or not. The help the US, Israel, Turkey and Saudi are giving to some of those factions will slow the process down, but in the end they will all have to leave Syria. Which will be easier if Syria and Iraq decide to tackle this problem together. Seen the influence Iran has on Iraq, I would imagine that to be a real possibility.
I do not share your prophetic vision for a positive ending for Bashar and what was formerly known as Syria as I've already posted. The damage is so extensive that it might only serve as a land bridge for Iran and a base for Putin. As for Iran's stabilization of Iraq - it has happened at the steep cost of ethnic cleansing of the Sunni minority some of which has come to visit you in Europe. It is strange that this is a goal you seem to favor for Syria which pre-arab spring held a majority of Sunni Arabs.
Syria is a secular, multi-ethnic and multi-religious state, and it should remain so. Russia and Iran, together, are the best chance for Syria to be an open society. The US is only interested in Syria to weaken it so that it will not be a threat to Israel, and to be used as a venue for the Arabic gas to reach Europe, undercutting Russia's dominant position. A reunited Syria under Bashar al-Assad, but with more democratic institutions, and counting on Russia and Iran to protect it from foreign subversion, would be the best and most stable solution for the region. The enemies of such stability are the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia, and they should all be fought against, until they cease interfering.

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SteveFoerster
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Re: The Syria War

Post by SteveFoerster » Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:46 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:56 pm
Syria is a secular, multi-ethnic and multi-religious state, and it should remain so. Russia and Iran, together, are the best chance for Syria to be an open society.
Given that neither Russia nor Iran are open societies, that would seem a rather unlikely outcome of their patronage.
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:56 pm
The US is only interested in Syria to weaken it so that it will not be a threat to Israel, and to be used as a venue for the Arabic gas to reach Europe, undercutting Russia's dominant position. A reunited Syria under Bashar al-Assad, but with more democratic institutions, and counting on Russia and Iran to protect it from foreign subversion, would be the best and most stable solution for the region. The enemies of such stability are the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia, and they should all be fought against, until they cease interfering.
I actually agree with most of this, but certainly not the suggestion that genuinely democratic institutions in Syria are in the foreseeable future. Hell, if I were Syrian, I'd flee too.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

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Sertorio
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Re: The Syria War

Post by Sertorio » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:34 am

SteveFoerster wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:46 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:56 pm
Syria is a secular, multi-ethnic and multi-religious state, and it should remain so. Russia and Iran, together, are the best chance for Syria to be an open society.
Given that neither Russia nor Iran are open societies, that would seem a rather unlikely outcome of their patronage.
Russia is a great Christian country and Iran is a great Shia Muslim country. That should be enough to guarantee respect of the Syrian diversity.

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Milo
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Re: The Syria War

Post by Milo » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:10 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:34 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:46 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:56 pm
Syria is a secular, multi-ethnic and multi-religious state, and it should remain so. Russia and Iran, together, are the best chance for Syria to be an open society.
Given that neither Russia nor Iran are open societies, that would seem a rather unlikely outcome of their patronage.
Russia is a great Christian country and Iran is a great Shia Muslim country. That should be enough to guarantee respect of the Syrian diversity.
America is a great Christian country and Israel is a great Jewish country. That should be enough to guarantee respect of the Syrian diversity.

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Sertorio
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Re: The Syria War

Post by Sertorio » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:23 pm

Milo wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:10 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:34 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:46 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:56 pm
Syria is a secular, multi-ethnic and multi-religious state, and it should remain so. Russia and Iran, together, are the best chance for Syria to be an open society.
Given that neither Russia nor Iran are open societies, that would seem a rather unlikely outcome of their patronage.
Russia is a great Christian country and Iran is a great Shia Muslim country. That should be enough to guarantee respect of the Syrian diversity.
America is a great Christian country and Israel is a great Jewish country. That should be enough to guarantee respect of the Syrian diversity.
No, because neither cares about Syria. If I was living in Canada I would make sure you would never be my lawyer... :D

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SteveFoerster
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Re: The Syria War

Post by SteveFoerster » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:46 pm

Sertorio wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:23 pm
Milo wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:10 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:34 am
SteveFoerster wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 5:46 pm
Sertorio wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 3:56 pm
Syria is a secular, multi-ethnic and multi-religious state, and it should remain so. Russia and Iran, together, are the best chance for Syria to be an open society.
Given that neither Russia nor Iran are open societies, that would seem a rather unlikely outcome of their patronage.
Russia is a great Christian country and Iran is a great Shia Muslim country. That should be enough to guarantee respect of the Syrian diversity.
America is a great Christian country and Israel is a great Jewish country. That should be enough to guarantee respect of the Syrian diversity.
No, because neither cares about Syria. If I was living in Canada I would make sure you would never be my lawyer... :D
Oh please. Russian and Iranian policymakers don't give a shit about Syria either, other than for their own geopolitical manoeuvring.
Writer, technologist, educator, gadfly.
President of New World University: http://newworld.ac

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